Michelle Obama Will Never Run For President

It’s time to put this theory to bed

Joe Biden is in deep trouble. His poll numbers are abysmal. A majority of Americans think he’s too old to run again. A special prosecutor ruled him too mentally unfit to stand trial. His constant gaffes reinforce the impression of senility. His policies are unpopular. The border crisis isn’t going away. Americans still think the economy sucks. The world continues to spiral out of control. And Donald Trump looks like he won’t be convicted before the election. Sidelining Trump in court was Biden’s chief hope for winning another term.

Things look grim for the Democrats and more unnamed sources rush to the press to discuss hopes that they can replace Biden. It’s unlikely Democrats will run someone else this late in the cycle, but it’s theoretically possible they could try to get a new nominee at the convention.

Conservatives think they know exactly who the Democrats will pick to replace Biden: Michelle Obama. Ted Cruz, Steve Bannon, and many others are confident it will happen. This confidence extends into the betting markets, where Mrs. Obama is given decent odds to be the next president. 

There is little evidence to support the idea that Michelle is considering a run. Pretty much all the speculation comes from the Right and is not based on inside sources. It’s simply based on the inner thoughts of conservatives.

However, despite the lack of evidence, there is some juice to this theory. Michelle is very popular with Democratic voters. The party faithful probably would be thrilled to vote for the former first lady.

But it’s never going to happen. Michelle Obama will absolutely not be on the ballot in November.

The main reason is that Democrats are stuck with Biden. Joe and Jill want to remain in the White House as long as possible. The Bidens are certain that the current commander-in-chief is perfectly fit for another term. They will not hear otherwise. The German shepherd drama underscores that point: the family refused to get rid of their dogs that kept biting Secret Service agents, illustrating their concern for the opinion of others. Every person in the world could tell them that Joe should not run. But as long as the Bidens want to stay in office, they will stick to their plan—everyone else be damned.

It’s too late to force Biden out against his will. The primary is essentially over. Joe will head to the convention with nearly all of the delegates. The only way that Joe would not be the nominee is if he withdrew himself. He will never do that—unless he literally can’t function anymore. 

Biden could be removed if he suffers some incapacitating health episode between now and the convention. If he cannot walk and/or talk to the public, they will have to pull him. Few Americans will vote for a stroke victim who can barely hold a pen. If something like this happens, Democrats will finally have their opportunity to replace Joe. But this is the only way they can get a new candidate. Biden will never voluntarily step aside.

Let’s say Biden is somehow pushed aside at the convention. Michelle Obama will not be chosen to replace him. Mrs. Obama doesn’t want the job. She is not Hillary Clinton. It was obvious from the beginning that Bill and Hillary were both political creatures. Their marriage was based around elevating both of them to the top echelons of power. They both lived for politics. Hillary was even involved in politics before she could vote. She campaigned for Barry Goldwater in 1964. When Hillary was First Lady, Bill Clinton handed her serious political objectives to manage and carry out, such as the president’s healthcare plan. The plan failed, but it showed the First Lady was serious about politics. She ran for the Senate while Bill was still in office. Hillary lived and breathed politics, and she was fine with all that being an American politician entailed. 

Michelle Obama is not like that at all. Outside of her husband’s campaigns, she was not involved in politics. As First Lady, she was given the frivolous task of reforming school lunches and encouraging more exercise. She wasn’t involved in the nitty gritty of White House affairs. She gives much-praised campaign speeches, but that’s the extent of what she likes to do in politics. She’s well-known for hating the field. She could barely stand her husband meeting with people she despises and making compromises. She’s remarkably thin-skinned and doesn’t deal well with criticism. Just imagine how she will handle Republican lawmakers and prominent conservatives demanding her birth certificate to prove she’s a woman.  She shows little interest in policy and other fundamental concerns. She just likes to talk on daytime TV about platitudes.

As former Obama adviser David Axelrod emphasizes, Mrs. Obama does not like politics.

If Obama was inclined toward politics, she would’ve taken up a more important issue than school lunches as First Lady. She’s been out of the White House for seven years, and she, unlike Hillary, has shown no interest in running for office. The Obamas are enjoying retirement where they bask in the adoration of the party faithful and focus on producing Netflix movies. Michelle doesn’t want to give this up for being in the White House again. Barack Obama claims leaving the White House helped his marriage, strongly indicating Michelle doesn’t want to return.

The Michelle Obama hype is driven by the insatiable conservative desire for higher audience engagement. Conservative audiences deeply loathe the Obamas and the thought of their return titillates them. Talk radio hosts and others understand this and that’s why they keep bringing her up as a serious possibility. It’s to rile up their own audience, not to offer serious political analysis.

The media is frankly bored by the inevitability of a Trump-Biden rematch. It’s made for a very dull primary season. Democrats are also greatly worried by Biden’s re-election prospects. But, despite media boredom and liberal fears, Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Only a stroke will change this. 

In the off-chance that occurs, conservatives should focus on who will actually replace Biden. It could be Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, or Gretchen Whitmer. But it certainly won’t be Michelle Obama.