There was a good Pimlico Journal piece this past week on a similar poll in the UK, done by a similarly biased pollster, and the similarly deluded reaction from online cons/trads.
In addition to all the wishcasting you noted, Pimlico points out that immigration likely skews the numbers. In the UK it’s Africans and in the US it’s hispanics, but in neither case is a Great Faith Revival likely, at least not in the way online Cons would like, if the “christian youth upsurge” is in reality a lot of newly immigrated brownoids.
There are still some strong churches out in the burbs where young conservative families want to raise their kids. They need to be very accommodative of families though.
But the pickings are slim anywhere in the city or in shrinking zip codes.
I'm pretty sure Barna's dataset is quota sampled, that is, non-random. Barna's wheelhouse is surveying the church community itself for internal opinions. This is probably why every other dataset in existence shows, year after year, a decline or at best plateau in religiosity with Gen Z being the least religious generation in recorded history. It's a complete outlier because it's using a methodology to show its own year-over-year trends, not really what the country is looking like as a whole.
Thanks for the splash of cold water. We all need to have realistic expectations. My local NO parish, St Typical's, is largely a senior center on all days, and week days it is especially populated w very senior women.
I've never been polled and I don't know anyone else who has. Though to be fair it's not something that comes up often in conversation.
I only believe polling when it's vastly to one side...like those polls that say 90% are unhappy with Congress. That is true; Congress sucks. 80-90% think Kennedy was not assassinated by LHO. That's also probably true. Nearly 100% think housing prices are too high. Vox populi, vox dei.
Any polling that's not at least 80-20 is extremely suspect, and not a reliable indicator of anything. As always, look for other signs, such as consumer habits, migration, how many crosses or American flags you see.
"Elite" conservatives have been embracing a traditional version of Catholicism since the 1950s. This was a common event among National Review contributors in its early days. Conservative activists at elite schools did this as well. DC conservatism has always boasted this feature. This is not a new phenomenon. What's newer is that there are fewer evangelicals among the ranks of elite conservatives.
Evangelicals are still a huge presence in the grassroots and conservatives still depend on appealing to them. See the Charlie Kirk funeral. It wasn't very Catholic. Kirk and co. were also challenging "liberal hegemony" in their day. The Ivies are even more overtly liberal than they were in the 20th century, as seen by studies showing 90 percent of students vote Democrat.
Despite the number of vocal trads, conservative movement has made its peace with gay marriage, sports betting, weed, and a lot of other things the Religious Right would've never tolerated.
That's my experience as well but it's partially due to the neighborhood my parish is in. Upper Middle class suburbs just don't have a ton of young people in their 20's in today's world.
I said partially. Young people do tend to drop out, but it looks like Gen Z, and every other group, has hit the bottom of the decline. It remains to be seen if there will be a bounce back.
There was a good Pimlico Journal piece this past week on a similar poll in the UK, done by a similarly biased pollster, and the similarly deluded reaction from online cons/trads.
In addition to all the wishcasting you noted, Pimlico points out that immigration likely skews the numbers. In the UK it’s Africans and in the US it’s hispanics, but in neither case is a Great Faith Revival likely, at least not in the way online Cons would like, if the “christian youth upsurge” is in reality a lot of newly immigrated brownoids.
There are still some strong churches out in the burbs where young conservative families want to raise their kids. They need to be very accommodative of families though.
But the pickings are slim anywhere in the city or in shrinking zip codes.
Florida. But the same was true when I was in Northern Virginia and Maryland.
In Virginia 62% of whites voted for Youngkin. And 53% of all races in the "suburbs" voted Youngkin.
59% of men with children and 56% of women with children voted Youngkin.
White voters with a college degree voted 47% Youngkin.
So there are a lot of white conservatives out in the burbs.
Virginia is a "blue state" because NOVA is flooded with non-whites and childless DC professionals.
I'm pretty sure Barna's dataset is quota sampled, that is, non-random. Barna's wheelhouse is surveying the church community itself for internal opinions. This is probably why every other dataset in existence shows, year after year, a decline or at best plateau in religiosity with Gen Z being the least religious generation in recorded history. It's a complete outlier because it's using a methodology to show its own year-over-year trends, not really what the country is looking like as a whole.
https://gildhelm.substack.com/p/its-no-great-awakening
There is data showing a bit of a spike among Gen Z men, but it's plummeting among the women. I
Thanks for the splash of cold water. We all need to have realistic expectations. My local NO parish, St Typical's, is largely a senior center on all days, and week days it is especially populated w very senior women.
I've never been polled and I don't know anyone else who has. Though to be fair it's not something that comes up often in conversation.
I only believe polling when it's vastly to one side...like those polls that say 90% are unhappy with Congress. That is true; Congress sucks. 80-90% think Kennedy was not assassinated by LHO. That's also probably true. Nearly 100% think housing prices are too high. Vox populi, vox dei.
Any polling that's not at least 80-20 is extremely suspect, and not a reliable indicator of anything. As always, look for other signs, such as consumer habits, migration, how many crosses or American flags you see.
What is a poll?
What is its purpose?
How does it collect data?
How does it interpret data?
…and the central question:
Who pays for the poll—and WHY??
"Elite" conservatives have been embracing a traditional version of Catholicism since the 1950s. This was a common event among National Review contributors in its early days. Conservative activists at elite schools did this as well. DC conservatism has always boasted this feature. This is not a new phenomenon. What's newer is that there are fewer evangelicals among the ranks of elite conservatives.
Evangelicals are still a huge presence in the grassroots and conservatives still depend on appealing to them. See the Charlie Kirk funeral. It wasn't very Catholic. Kirk and co. were also challenging "liberal hegemony" in their day. The Ivies are even more overtly liberal than they were in the 20th century, as seen by studies showing 90 percent of students vote Democrat.
Despite the number of vocal trads, conservative movement has made its peace with gay marriage, sports betting, weed, and a lot of other things the Religious Right would've never tolerated.
I'm not sure where the Nietzscheans are.
That's my experience as well but it's partially due to the neighborhood my parish is in. Upper Middle class suburbs just don't have a ton of young people in their 20's in today's world.
I said partially. Young people do tend to drop out, but it looks like Gen Z, and every other group, has hit the bottom of the decline. It remains to be seen if there will be a bounce back.
To me it seems the evangelical churches are the only ones with a younger demographic. I also live in central Florida, FWIW.