Republicans got schlonged in the midterms. In spite of redistricting and a significant money disadvantage, Democrats won overwhelming majorities in the House and the Senate. President Trump now faces a Congress eager to thwart his agenda and possibly throw him out of office.
A historic loss demands the Right take stock of Trump’s movement and the future of the Right.
Some have refused to do this and have resorted to cope for the midterm massacre. There are those who insist it was a normal result for a midterm, overlooking how it should’ve been theoretically improbable for Democrats to win so many solid red House districts. Comparisons to 2010 or other times fall flat considering how redistricting has left fewer competitive races–yet Democrats greatly exceeded expectations.
Others claim “candidate quality” as the reason for the loss, which completely ignores the House results and how only three Senate races (MS, KS, and SC) would’ve been winnable with different candidates.
Some point to demographic change. This is definitely an issue for Republicans long-term, but the electorate didn’t suddenly get Great Replaced over the last two years. Seventy-three percent of midterm voters were white–and Republicans only won 51 percent of them. The GOP lost due to whites turning on them.
Trump and his supporters are dredging up “stolen election” claims to explain the loss. This thinking is both stupid and lazy. Texas went overwhelmingly red in previous elections. It’s controlled by Republicans who were willing to cut corners to redistrict. Somehow, Democrats created an election stealing machine that allowed them to win a statewide race by 12 points. One needs a lobotomy to believe the midterms were somehow stolen.
The cope must be put aside. This election was a referendum on MAGA, and the results speak for themselves.
The Iran War was the primary culprit for the loss. Without this stupid conflict, we could’ve kept the Senate and minimized the losses in the House. The war increased the cost of living, created chaos with zero gain, and presented a serious betrayal of Trump’s campaign promises. Promising no new wars and starting one of the most pointless conflicts in American history comes with a cost.
Tariffs further worsened the GOP’s election outlook. They increased the cost of living, caused job losses and strained relations with our allies–all without any real positive gains. There are those who wrongly claim the tariffs, not the Iran War, were responsible for the midterm massacre. Without the Iran War, Republicans could’ve had a more manageable defeat. That said, tariffs still played a role.
These decisions would be bad on their own, but they were compounded by the administration’s “Let Them Eat Cheesecake” attitude. The public is becoming more aware of the deep corruption of the Trump White House. The public also doesn’t like how the president’s tone-deaf attitude seems more concerned with the White House ballroom than affordability. The administration stands on the wrong side of public opinion on AI and tech. Rather than trying to persuade the public to embrace the AI revolution, Trump has chosen to call them idiots and even the “enemy” if they don’t use “super intelligence.” The admin poorly handled the Epstein Files, which convinced a number of Americans that Trump now protects pedos.
The admin didn’t take note of the people’s concerns. In MAGA world, Trump had record high approval, the people loved the war, only morons complained about the cost of living, and the public was begging for a new ballroom. Only “panicans” and the Loony Left thought otherwise.
This attitude left the GOP with nothing to run on. Republicans fixated on trans figures in girls’ sports because it was one of the few issues they had. The issues they won on in 2024 are less important to voters now largely due to Trump successes. The border is effectively closed, violent crime is at historic lows, and woke is in retreat. This was an election centered on the economy and affordability, and Republicans focused on trans stuff, defending the Cheesecake Factory, and talking non-stop about John Husted’s ass. The results shouldn’t surprise us.
Republicans lost because of bad policies (chiefly Iran and the tariffs) that increased the cost of living while telling the people “Let Them Eat Cheesecake.” The BASED actions of the administration, such as the ICE raids and the DOGE cuts, played a minor role in the election. Without the two major handicaps, the GOP could’ve even kept the House, regardless of the majority’s queasiness over immigration enforcement. Blaming ICE is like blaming “candidate quality.” It was a factor, but a marginal one.
Many now declare MAGA dead after the election. It’s still alive, albeit not so well. Trump is still the president and the GOP base still loves him. MAGA still stands as the only competitive brand in Republican politics. The problem for MAGA is that it seems only capable of winning among Republicans–no one else. It’s an increasingly toxic brand, and one people are unlikely to uphold after Trump leaves office. But it’s here to stay for at least the next two years.
Where should the Right go from here then? There are two opposing sides here. One side says we should double-down on MAGA and remain plan trusting. The other side says we need to completely reject MAGA and take an extremely hostile stance towards Trump.
The first position makes sense if your only concern is Fox News and deep red Republican primaries. It doesn’t make sense when looking at the big picture. Yes, many parties have quickly recovered from crippling electoral defeats. Republicans bounced back from 1964 and 2008. Democrats bounced back from 2010 and 2024. But this is a different situation. Even if Trump quickly ends the Iran War on decent terms, the corruption remains. Democrats are going to ensure this issue stands front and center before the public over the next two years. What has been revealed so far about this administration pales in comparison to what will be uncovered in House investigations.
The public could see MAGA as a movement primarily dedicated to enriching Trump and his associates. This is what the Right will have to defend and celebrate by doubling down on MAGA. One can honestly defend the Iran War. It was a horrible decision and a betrayal of Trump’s campaign promises, but at least someone can support it on the basis of national security. (They would be wrong, of course). There is no way anyone can defend the rank corruption that the admin is involved in.
As a commentator, I have zero interest in doing this. The corruption is more repulsive to me, and likely millions of other Americans, than the failed Iran War. The Iran War, the tariffs, and other issues can be reversed. The corruption can’t.
That said, the other side of the debate isn’t that much stronger. There are two elements wanting the Right to take an anti-Trump tack. One is the old guard that wants to return the GOP to its pre-Trump days. The other wants to ditch Trump in favor of an even more far-right strategy. Neither side holds much appeal to the public. The old guard also did poorly in last week’s midterms and hasn’t had a compelling message in decades. The old guard loved the Iran War and has proven to be its most stalwart defenders. Paul Ryanism was rejected in 2012 and by Republican voters in 2016. The old guard can still win races, but it can’t lead the party. It has no message besides pretending Americans are desperate for Mike Pence.
The far-right anti-Trumpers can’t even compete in Republican primaries, much less in a general election. This sentiment is found almost entirely online and has no real-world organizing capacity. Unlike the old guard, this side is right about Iran and how it alienated the public from Trump. But there’s not much else showing the people are really eager for something further to the Right of Trump. Almost 60 percent of voters said immigration raids and deportations have gone too far. Just 20 percent shared the anti-Trump far-right position that they haven’t gone far enough. It’s easier to argue that the public rejected MAGA for being too far-right rather than not right-wing enough.
The real issue for this side is that they have no serious representatives who can run for office or organizational apparatus for campaigns. It’s pretty much exclusive to the internet where it has a sizable audience. But that doesn’t translate to a constituency you can depend on for Election Day.
Both anti-Trump factions have to contend with the base sticking with Trump and MAGA. A hostile position to Trump will guarantee you lose in a Republican primary. It’s why Ron DeSantis and other ‘28 hopefuls insist they still support Trump.
The Right appears stuck with MAGA for at least another two years. The only hope for the GOP is that voters will see a significant difference between the Republican ‘28 field and MAGA. That requires a delicate balancing act that retains MAGA elements while moving away from Trump’s shadow. It’s possible, but it will be difficult.
Long-term, MAGA will unlikely be highly regarded–even on the Right. If its main legacies are the Iran War and the most corrupt administration in U.S. history, even conservatives will not want to associate with it.
That doesn’t make MAGA a complete failure. Donald Trump made real right-wing politics in America possible. If he never came down the escalator, amnesty would’ve passed after 2016, no Republican would discuss immigration restriction, discussing the Great Replacement and anti-whiteness would’ve remained encased within obscure internet forums, and the only opposition to woke would’ve been Lyin’ Ted Cruz. Trump made a lot of things possible that were once impossible. His positive effects on conservatism will stand for many years to come.
Additionally, the administration has done many good things. Trump 2.0 secured the border, significantly reduced legal immigration, brought worldwide attention to anti-whiteness in America and abroad, rolled back DEI, cracked down on Antifa, and defunded USAID and other left-wing apparati. The 47th president has shown the Right can do great things with the power of the executive branch.
But he’s also shown you can do many retarded things with that same power, and those failures may be Trump’s lasting legacy.
One of the few upsides to this election is that the public still rejects woke and is open to the good parts of the Trump agenda. Voters still trust Republicans on immigration more than they do Democrats. Ballot initiatives on trans issues, DEI, and voter ID went overwhelmingly in the Right’s favor. The election should not be seen as an endorsement of the Left’s agenda, but as a protest against Trump’s failures.
MAGA isn’t going anywhere for the next two years. But I’m not interested in proclaiming myself part of it.
I am not a Republican operative, nor am I a congressman. I’m a writer and podcaster who tells you what I think about the world. I prefer to be honest and realistic rather than a delusional propagandist. I have no interest in defining myself as a MAGA apologist. When the administration does something good, I will praise Trump for it. But I’m not going to pretend the Iran War was a minor mishap and ignore the corruption. It’s a disservice to those who read and listen to me.
The GOP and the broader conservative movement is in a more difficult situation. The Right just can’t declare MAGA over and move on. It’s stuck with Trump’s movement. The only viable path is to keep the good things about MAGA (immigration hawkery, the political incorrectness, and the backbone) and ditch the bad (corruption, clownishness, reckless foreign adventures, etc.). Most importantly, it has to get out from under Trump’s shadow and present itself as something different from the current administration. If the GOP promises four more years of Trump without Trump, Republicans will get murdered in ‘28.
Realism, not plan trusting, is the only way forward.
Order Scott Greer’s new book, “Whitepill: The Online Right and the Making of Trump’s America,” from this link.
The extent of last Tuesday's bloodbath shines a spotlight on the uncomfortable fact that all of these aforementioned factions are partially correct in their autopsy of the results. It takes a perfect storm for the GOP to lose a clean sweep of fundamentally red states like MS/SC/KS/IA/TX.
The Zombie Right are correct in calling out the disjointed and counterproductive nature of the tariffs, along with the Chudded-out clownishness of the Administration. The ICP/Online Right are correct in calling out the shortsighted decision to get involved in Iran and the overall mishandling of the "Epstein Files". The MAGAverse is correct in pointing out that the congressional GOP's fecklessness demoralized much of the base, and that many of the energizing issues behind the 2024 election are simply resolved/irrelvant.
The only path forward is synthesizing a candidate/movement that's able to capture a critical mass within each of these factions. In other words, someone with the normie sensibilities and free-market policies of Mitt Romney, the immigration hawkery and aggressive feistiness of Trump, and the foreign policy realism + countercultural vibes of someone like Massie.
This Goldilocks candidate probably doesn't exist. I truly wish Vance had simply carried out his Senate term until 2028, since he'd be well-positioned to thread this needle.
Save us, Jasmine Crockett.
The most corrupt admin in history? I keep hearing the right chattering class say this, but no one ever offers any example other than Susie Wiles and Trumps family digital coins.
If trump admin is that corrupt I would like to know how, not just chattering class opinion, when the right chattering class is mostly failed at this point.