President Kamala?

How the VP will fare in a battle with Trump

Joe Biden betrayed me. For weeks, I said the president would never drop out. I staked my highly respected reputation on it. And then, in a blink of an eye, he destroyed all my great analysis by dropping out Sunday. It’s never been more over for Greerheads…

With all that said, and my predictive powers in tatters, I’m still going to assess the candidacy of Biden’s likely successor, Kamala Harris. The content must go on.

The current vice president is certain to be the candidate. She just surpassed the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. All her potential challengers have endorsed her. The party is united behind her. Only an unforeseen catastrophe can stop her coronation. 

How does Kamala change the presidential race? It still looks good for Trump, but the veep can make this a more competitive contest. She lacks Biden’s most glaring weaknesses while offering the possibility of charting a course away from this disastrous administration. But she has her own significant weakness and will be beholden to the party’s special interests, which would oppose attempts at moderation. The Democrats’ savior may end up being a sure loser like the president.

Right now, Kamala is clearly the better choice. Harris can form complete sentences. She can do a press conference without calling Zelensky Putin. She will not stare at Trump like a dementia patient at a debate. She will be able to walk and get into a car without assistance. These basic things make her a superior candidate.

She also checks the identity boxes. She’s half-black, half-Indian, and a woman. She will be the first woman president, the first Asian-American president, the first Indian-American president, and the first black woman president. These factors could drive higher turnout among these various identity groups. It will also please the progressive base that they’re not having to vote for a white guy. Instead, their candidate is really diverse!

Being a woman aides messaging on abortion, which is the strongest issue for Democrats in the upcoming election. Senile Joe wasn’t the best messenger on this issue. Kamala is far stronger.  Attacks on Kamala for using sex to get ahead and for being childless would push more women to vote for her. Many women would see these criticisms as “sexist” and attacks upon themselves. 

By simply not being Biden, she will increase donations and inspire more enthusiasm among Democrats. The donations factor is critical because Democrats are banking on a money advantage to help them win in November. Biden seriously undermined that by staying in the race. The jubilation that someone fully cognizant is now the nominee will restore this advantage.

Kamala also wins back the media. Journalists suddenly started reporting on Biden and his many issues in recent weeks. That’s now being put aside. The media is ready to campaign for Kamala and Room Service Journalism is back. Several prominent reporters wrote about what Harris was wearing Sunday and what kind of pizza she was eating. Journalists are ready to serve as the campaign’s dutiful slaves for the election. Biden lost this advantage; Kamala restores it.

She can also bring celebrity appeal. Biden has struggled to get entertainment stars to back him. Trump is getting more love from popular culture than the Democratic president. Kamala, by contrast, is getting a “pop music rollout,” according to the New York Times. This won’t decide the election, but it is a good sign if pop culture enthusiastically embraces the Democratic nominee. 

All of this makes her a more competitive candidate. However, she also brings serious weaknesses at the top of the ticket. 

Harris is extremely unlikable. She has the lowest favorability rating of any vice president in history. Remember, this list includes Dan Quayle and Dick Cheney–two veeps who were widely ridiculed when they were in office. Kamala is less liked than the guy who engineered the Iraq War. Kamala is not a confident speaker and an awkward interview subject. Despite being far younger than Biden and showing no signs of mental decline, she offers nearly as many gaffes as her boss.

Here’s her explaining the Ukraine invasion in a radio interview:

Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine, so basically that’s wrong.

That may be a good way to explain the war to second-graders, but it’s embarrassing to talk to adults in this way.

Her interview at the BET Awards last month spawned more strange sound bites: 

Yeah girl, I’m out here in these streets… The majority of us believe in freedom and equality, but these extremists, as they say, they not like us.

Coupled with her odd public appearances is her past enthusiasm for far-left causes. She touted DEI initiatives, fundraised for BLM rioters, entertained reparations, and fell for the Jussie Smollett hoax. This will all come back to haunt her.

Since she is Biden’s vice president, she can’t escape the administration’s terrible record. Harris was even Biden’s “border czar,” which means she’s susceptible to the GOP’s most potent messaging in this election. All the administration’s immigration failures can be laid at her feet.

The same goes for the rest of Biden’s terrible record. The economy, inflation, the chaotic global situation, and all the rest will be used against Kamala. The only accomplishments the Biden administration has made, according to the president himself, is getting Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Few Americans care about that.

Kamala could make up for these issues. She could break away from the failed Biden agenda and present herself as more moderate. She can insist that the administration is getting illegal immigration under control through tough measures her boss didn’t adopt soon enough and ones she promises to expand in the next administration. She’ll of course promise amnesty for the illegals already here to ameliorate her left flank. But appearing to be more sensible on immigration would help her with independents. She could take the same tack on crime and a number of other issues. 

It’s a very different election from 2020. The American people don’t want “defund the police” and Black Lives Matter slogans. They want law and order. Kamala can lean into her past as a prosecutor to aid in this messaging and provide a contrast to her “convicted felon” opponent. The Trump campaign may unintentionally build up this tough-on-crime image by running attack ads on how she locked away too many blacks. (Yes, campaign officials are considering this stupid tactic.) A moderate running mate such as Kentucky governor Andy Beshear or North Carolina governor Roy Cooper would also help fortify a centrist appeal. 

She may have difficulty charting a moderate course if the special interests that now back her have wrung pledges to their particular concerns. The Hispanic caucus isn’t going to want stronger immigration enforcement, and the black caucus doesn’t want tough-on-crime policies. These groups could also push her to adopt unpopular ideas such as reparations to placate them. This is an area that remains to be determined. 

You would hope Americans wouldn’t fall for this moderation trick, but the midterms shows a lot of our countrymen are still susceptible to this strategy. The Biden administration should discredit delusions that Democrats will govern from the center. However, Americans will still fall for it.

Harris’s chief issue is her personality. Politics is often a personality contest where policies are secondary. Republicans should’ve learned this lesson in the primary when the anti-charismatic Ron DeSantis was easily defeated by the charismatic Donald Trump. Harris’s low approval primarily stems from her personality. Americans don’t like her. A more moderate image and a fundraising advantage may not be enough to overcome this. A woman with a similar girlboss personality lost to Trump in 2016. The Don can repeat this in 2024. 

Trump is still the smart bet to win, but Kamala will make it a more competitive race. Her chief advantage is the Democratic political machine, which she is reviving thanks to simply not being Biden. This machine, according to Republican strategists, far outpaces GOP infrastructure in terms of fundraising, get out the vote efforts, and outreach. Its biggest problem was Biden, who was demoralizing donors and volunteers. With him out of the way, the machine can roar back into gear. 

If it’s a battle of personalities, Trump wins. If it’s a referendum on the Biden administration, Trump wins. But if it’s merely a battle over who can raise the most money and run the most ads, then Kamala will win. 

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Trump’s chances against Harris. But we shouldn’t get too cocky. For all her faults, Kamala is still a better candidate than brain dead Joe.