The GOP Is Less Popular Than Trump

Data clearly shows this

Donald Trump is in a virtual dead heat with Kamala Harris. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Harris with a very small lead. While not ideal for Trump, it’s a much smaller gap than where he was in 2016 and in 2020 at the point. Nate Silver’s model currently favors Trump winning the election. The latest polls show Kamala’s new candidate bump diminishing and Trump edging her out in battleground states. 

Trump was clearly doing better when Joe Biden was the opponent, but this is still a very winnable race. However, there is much discontent arising from the conservative commentariat over Trump’s chances. The new line is that Ron DeSantis or just any other Republican would be doing far better than the current nominee. “If the GOP had chosen Ron DeSantis, the party would be up over the Democratic nominee by double digits right now,” opined blogger Rod Dreher in a typical example of this emerging consensus. The theory assumes that this is an election where a conventional Republican would be sailing to an easy victory.

This theory is pure wishful thinking. There are plenty of conventional Republicans running for Senate in battleground states. Every single one is trailing Trump in the polls. If this were an election favoring standard Republicans, they would be ahead of Trump. It’s, in fact, not a good election for the old guard. In spite of what Conservative Inc. wants to believe, Trump is more popular than the GOP. Getting rid of him and his brand would just hurt the GOP.

It became popular after the midterms to see Trump as the GOP’s sole problem. According to this theory, the Republicans were headed to a historic triumph in 2022–until Trump FORCED Republican voters to pick unelectable candidates and lose races they should’ve won. Even though Trump wasn’t on the ticket, his mere association with the Republican brand made voters go for Democrats. 

The solution to this problem was two-fold. One, ensure Trump wasn’t the nominee. Two, ensure conventional Republicans are the candidates in competitive seats. Con Inc. failed miserably in accomplishing the first part. But the second part was largely accomplished. With a few exceptions, Republicans picked uncontroversial nominees in competitive races this year. Yet, they’re all undermining claims generic Republicans are what the people want.

Take Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. The businessman lost to Dr. Oz in a close primary battle in 2022. Oz went on to lose to John Fetterman in the Senate race that year. That result turned McCormick into a martyr for the “Trump is the problem” crowd. If only he had won the primary, Republicans would’ve won that Senate race. But Trump had to ruin it by picking the “unelectable” Oz over the incredibly electable McCormick! 

This time around, McCormick sailed to victory in the primary and the state party is 100 percent behind him. Yet, his polling doesn’t support the electable image he’s cultivated for the past two years. The moderate Republican trails incumbent Bob Casey by nearly seven points in the RCP average. Trump, the albatross around the GOP’s neck, is basically tied with Harris in the battleground state.

This story is repeated in every other battlefield state. Eric Hovde, a relatively inoffensive businessman, won the party’s nomination to challenge Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin. He’s currently down by 6.4 points in the RCP average. Trump is only down by 1.4 points in Wisconsin, according to the RCP average.

U.S. Army veteran Sam Brown received the full backing of the GOP establishment in the Nevada primary, helping him win decisively. His war injuries and inspiring story made him appear to be a standout candidate. However, his polling is pretty bad. The RCP average puts him down by nearly 11 points in the battle against incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen. Trump, on the other hand, is tied in the state. 

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno, like McCormick, ran as a moderate in a 2022 Senate primary. He did worse than McCormick and dropped out before the primary took place. This time, he ran a more MAGA campaign that earned Trump’s endorsement and the party’s nomination. Moreno is struggling in his race with incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown. He’s down by five in the RCP average. Meanwhile, Trump is ahead by nearly nine points. Critics looking to blame Trump for all of the GOP’s woes have decided Moreno, a pretty standard conservative, is a crazy MAGA extremist to explain his polling. However, he’s doing better than McCormick, Hovde, and Brown. 

Some will dismiss this data by claiming it’s tougher for these candidates because they face an incumbent. Trump faced an incumbent president just a month ago and was dominating the polls. 

If this is an election that overwhelmingly favors Republicans, battleground Democrats would not be polling so well. This is a weak argument that assumes Republicans should only be competing for open seats. In any case, Republican incumbents and those running for open battleground seats are also running behind Trump.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is only up by two points in one poll against his Democratic challenger. Florida Sen. Rick Scott is also only leading by a slight margin in his re-election bid. Trump is firmly ahead in both states. If 2024 is a year that favors incumbents, then why are Cruz and Scott not blowing away the competition? 

Former congressman Mike Rogers is the party’s nominee for Michigan’s open Senate seat. Rogers is a textbook establishment Republican. He earned Trump’s endorsement simply because his primary opponents voted to impeach the 45th president. Rogers is down by nearly five points against his Democratic opponent. Trump is only down by a point. 

Two of the other open statewide races in battleground states do feature very MAGA candidates. Kari Lake is the GOP nominee for Arizona’s open Senate seat, and she’s doing poorly. One poll put her down by 15 points to her opponent, Ruben Gallego. (That same poll has Trump down by a point.) The RCP average still has Lake doing better than Sam Brown, however. Trump is leading the RCP average for Arizona at the moment. One could say MAGA is to blame here, but that overlooks Trump doing fairly well in Arizona polls. Lake’s numbers are not an aberration from other battleground candidates. She’s only doing slightly worse than her compatriots. Additionally, there wasn’t some great electable candidate in the Arizona primary. Lake’s opponent, Mark Lamb, was also a MAGA candidate who was involved in Stop the Steal. The difference between Lamb and Lake is that he lacked Lake’s name recognition and charisma. He would likely be faring the same in the polls.

The other MAGA candidate is Mark Robinson, the bombastic black lieutenant governor of North Carolina. Despite his many controversial statements, he easily won the GOP’s gubernatorial primary. Robinson is currently down by nearly nine points against his Democratic opponent. Trump is leading by a slight margin in the Tar Heel state. Judging by his victory margin and name recognition, Robinson would have won the primary with or without Trump’s endorsement. Like with Lake, you can imagine a better candidate. However, Robinson is who the voters picked. 

Ultimately, the people who bemoan Trump and MAGA candidates are complaining about the base. Republican voters overwhelmingly prefer Trump and candidates like him. Commentators can daydream about a DeSantis candidacy all they like, but the Florida governor was a disaster in the Republican primary. One is not “electable” if one gets blown out at the stage. DeSantis showed he wasn’t ready for the national level with his awkwardness, anti-charisma, and lackluster messaging. If he were the nominee, his numbers would be closer to Dave McCormick’s than to Trump’s.

2024 may not be a Republican year after all, yet Trump is exceeding expectations. Battleground Republicans were faring poorly even when Biden was in the race. Trump may in fact be the best possible Republican candidate. 

Trump brings out voters who would otherwise not go to the polls unless the Donald was on the ballot. He energizes the base and boasts a deep connection with GOP voters that no other Republican can match. The majority of Republican voters see Trump as their leader and are deeply loyal to him. Getting rid of Trump takes away these traits without providing offsetting benefits. The old GOP is not going to return with Trump’s departure. The party is now dependent on his voters turning out. Republicans no longer have their previous advantage among college-educated whites. Working-class whites are now the base. It’s going to take a lot more than a presidential candidate not named Trump to win the majority of college-educated whites back to the fold. 

In the meantime, they need to focus on who their actual voters are–and it’s going to require Trumpism to convince them to turnout.

It’s convenient to blame Trump for all of the GOP’s woes. This allows the party to avoid discussions about its institutional faults, poor fundraising ability, and abortion. If it’s all Trump’s fault, the GOP can pretend it needs to return to its supposedly perfect pre-Trump agenda. The actual data disproves this. 

Trump was the best possible candidate for this race. Primary voters picked him by lopsided margins. He still draws tens of thousands of people to individual rallies. No other Republican can best his charisma and connection to the base. And it appears that no other Republican does better than him among the general public.

In spite of multiple indictments, impeachments, and an indictment, Trump is still the guy. Conservatives are just too caught up in their own anti-Trump fantasies to acknowledge this plain fact.