The MAGA Divorce

The Right’s civil war could leave the two sides going their own separate ways–and completely different results

President Trump unleashed a lengthy fusillade against former supporters of his last week. “I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs,” he proclaimed in a Truth Social post.

Trump declared these four, along with Marjorie Taylor Greene, to be the “opposite of MAGA”

Many of these names were once Trump’s most ardent supporters, which drew complaints that the president was now turning on his “most loyal” followers. But none of them would count as pro-Trump anymore. MTG and Jones support invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office. Owens has long alleged that the admin is covering up the Charlie Kirk assassination and hasn’t proven to be that friendly to Trump 2.0. Tucker implied Trump may be the Antichrist in a podcast last week. Kelly was never much of a Trump supporter herself. She was the face of Never Trumpism at Fox in 2016 and became a standard lib during the first term. The former Fox News host only became a Trump supporter as a conservative podcaster in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

It’s not a great sign for Trump to expend 500 words trashing commentators who were previously MAGA. The Iran War is not going well for the 47th president and it’s vigorously supported by neocons who hated Trump in the not-so distant past. Exchanging Tucker Carlson for Mark Levin is a concerning development for MAGA. Then again, it’s hard to say you’re still MAGA if you think Trump needs to be couped.

This all shows the next stage of the ongoing “MAGA civil war.” For months, factions of the Right have been at each other’s throats over the future of conservatism. Last year, both sides were pro-Trump and they fought over who was really MAGA–the old guard of conservatism or the New Right. Now the picture is different. The argument is no longer over who’s really pro-Trump but over Trump himself. Most of the Old Guard is now pro-Trump, while significant parts of the New Right are now anti-Trump. (We’ll describe the side wanting to secede from MAGA as the Rumble Right.) If the civil war were supposed to be a battle over MAGA, then the anti-Trump elements have ceded it to their opponents.

It’s less of a civil war and more of a divorce. Both sides go their separate ways and choose to focus on different things, with the Rumble Right deciding to give up on ordinary politics and focus on internet entertainment.

There is a common argument that the influencers who’ve turned on Trump have no influence at all. They’re irrelevant and Trump can ignore them without consequence. That’s not really true. Their audience and sway over the MAGA base are often exaggerated, but they do still have influence. They are listened to by hundreds of thousands of people and they’re particularly relevant to the “elite” class of conservative intellectuals, operators, and staffers in the administration. The views of Republicans under 35 owe more to the influencers than they do to Fox News. They are relevant–to a certain degree.

We will see how much they impact elections this year. There are plenty of Republicans running as influencer-touted Trump critics. Thomas Massie and James Fishback are two examples. If Massie can win and Fishback pulls off a respectable showing in the Florida gubernatorial primary, it will demonstrate that this faction can impact real-world politics. But if Massie loses his primary and Fishback gets single digits, it will undermine claims of political power.

This faction could still claim electoral influence if the GOP does poorly in the midterms. Many within this crowd want the Democrats to win in a landslide to illustrate how MAGA can’t survive without them. How much a potential loss will be the direct result of MAGA dissidents is a matter of debate.

The real test for political power will be the 2028 primary. There will be at least one candidate who runs to appeal to the Trump-critical onlinesphere. How this message plays out in the primary will determine how much support it has among the base. An Insane Clown Party candidate who struggles to poll well enough would obviously not signal political strength.

But this faction doesn’t need to demonstrate electoral strength to remain popular. They can still have large audiences and create news while being unable to sway elections. Their viewers aren’t going to suddenly turn to Ben Shapiro if these influencers can’t get James Fishback elected. Many people will still watch them.

The MAGA divorce could result in the two sides living in separate universes. In this scenario, the old guard takes back the GOP and creates a different coalition from MAGA, but retains admiration for Trump and some of his signature policies. The influencers retreat from normal politics, gain large audiences online, and imagine a world where the top issues are chemtrails, UFOs, demonic possession, and other topics not addressed by lawmakers. One side may not have many fans on X, but they will have serious influence over electoral politics. The other will be very popular on the internet, but lack real political influence.

The Rumble Right has an audience but not a constituency. And that’s perfectly fine for a media operation. They can sustain themselves as entertainers who discuss politics independent of results. There isn’t a need to demonstrate a direct electoral impact. Prior to Trump, Alex Jones built a big audience without ever impacting American politics. Most influencers will follow this model.

It’s what a lot of their audience wants. It’s hard to convince people who believe the government is run by pedophiles to vote for some bland Republican. It makes for boring content. They’d rather hear about how a collapse/civil war/revolution is just around the corner and you don’t need to worry about ordinary politics. This makes for entertaining content, even if it is divorced from reality. But that’s what matters most–entertainment. That can still be provided absent political influence.

Real politics is often boring and dispiriting. Internet politics is way more fun and exciting. Every feud, no matter how small, is raised to civilizational stakes. The apocalypse is always around the corner and some grand adventure is always at hand. It’s more like a video game than campaigning, and that’s what makes it more engaging. Influencers aren’t stupid for choosing this path.

The Rumble Right has an audience, but not a constituency. They are not an interest group like labor unions or the old Religious Right. They don’t command voters in a demonstrable fashion. They certainly influence opinion at the “elite” level in terms of think tanks and media outlets. But they don’t sway voters in the way interest groups or traditional conservative media do. The average Republican still turns to Fox News rather than podcasters.

The MAGA divorce doesn’t end up with two factions competing in elections. It results in one faction with a large internet audience that’s gradually removed from standard politics while the other faction gains greater influence over regular politics at the expense of an internet audience.

The Rumble Right won’t be entirely ignored, and they may regain a degree of political influence as part of the opposition to a Democratic administration. But it will never have the same level of influence it does as with Trump. The 47th president presented a unique opportunity for forces previously excluded from the mainstream. That opportunity may never arise again. There’s not another figure like Trump waiting in the wings to challenge MAGA, nor will there be one in 2028. Whoever these influencers back in 2028 against the MAGA-supported candidate will lose in the primary. That’s a fact.

That setback won’t lose the Rumble Right any listeners. But it will demonstrate the limits of their political engagement and what the MAGA divorce means for them. One can have a massive internet audience and hardly matter in elections. A faction needs more than a large internet following to change American politics.

You can now preorder Scott Greer’s new book, “Whitepill: The Online Right and the Making of Trump’s America,” from this link.