The Nightmare Scenario Of A House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries

Republicans may deliver a massive self-own

Things aren’t looking good for House Speaker Mike Johnson. House conservatives are outraged by his commitment to fund Ukraine. They’ve already been upset with his past failures to pass any substantial right-wing legislation. At least two Republicans–Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie–support a motion to vacate against Johnson. If every Democrat votes for it, Johnson is done. 

A lot of conservatives wouldn’t be bothered by this. They see Johnson as a traitor and would like him to pay for his failures. Many believe they can get an even better speaker with Johnson gone. This is the exact same kind of thinking that ousted Kevin McCarthy from the speakership last year. Conservatives were thrilled with Johnson’s elevation to the job, believing he would be far superior to his predecessor. Instead, he turned out to be more the same. A few (such as your humble author) predicted this, but were not listened to. So is politics.

However, getting rid of Johnson presents a far greater problem than the previous ouster of McCarthy. This time, it’s possible that the next House Speaker could be Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. When McCarthy was overthrown, the GOP had a small, yet multi-seat majority. Now they just have a one-seat majority. Just a few moderate Republicans—many of them openly furious with the conservative minority within the party’s shrinking majority—need to vote for Jeffries to make him Speaker.

It may be unthinkable that Republicans would cross party lines to do so, but the turmoil within the GOP caucus could make this possible. The last time Republicans went through the process of picking a new speaker, they went through highly acrimonious votes and meetings to eventually arrive at Mike Johnson. Three other men were picked by the majority of the caucus before Johnson, but none of them could get enough votes to become speaker. Johnson was a compromise pick who barely made it. Republicans have even fewer votes and more animosity towards each other now. It may be impossible for them to pick someone within their own ranks to be the next speaker. Enough moderates may get fed up with the stalemate and decide the only option is Jeffries.

This would still be a wild move. These rebellious Republicans would risk punishment from their own side if they crossed the aisle. Jeffries would have to offer something in return for their votes. What Jeffries could do is promise to be a “non-partisan” speaker, meaning that Republicans would keep half or most of the committee chairs. Democrats would think this is a helluva deal if this gives them Oversight and Judiciary–both of which are investigating President Biden–and Republicans keep the rest. Moderates have little enthusiasm for the investigations in the first place, so this would be no loss for them. 

Additionally, Jeffries could win them over with pledges to only push “bipartisan” legislation, such as funding for Ukraine, Israel etc. Many moderates lament the state of affairs where the House can’t pass anything. They can be persuaded that a Jeffries-led House would “get things done.” Of course, those things getting passed would be against the interests of the base, but moderates don’t care.

These dissidents would have to worry about backlash from their own side. However, this may be no serious concern. Primary season is over for many lawmakers, and it’s very late to field a serious challenger against a possible traitor. Many of the moderates represent districts that went for Biden and where a vote for Jeffries may help them.  Republicans would not cut off funding in a general election for any of these candidates; the party cares too much about losing its razor-thin majority. Moderates could call leadership’s bluff and not pay a price.

When I suggested on X earlier this week that Jeffries may be the next House Speaker, the majority of respondents declared there would be no difference between the Democrat and what we have now. Despite how much Johnson sucks, that’s not true. Jeffries would be worse. The most obvious consequence is that the investigations into Biden would end. Some of Johnson’s critics may not care about that fact;people say House Republicans failed  because they have not produced what they’ve promised. But it’s still a huge failure for Republicans for that to occur. It still helps them in the general election to publicize the misdeeds of the Biden family.

The bigger problem is that a Jeffries-led House could pass amnesty. For all of Johnson’s faults, he made sure the terrible Senate immigration “deal” died. The fact Johnson immediately rejected it and said it wouldn’t make it in the House ruined its chances. But a new House Speaker could revive it—and Jefferies certainly would.

It must be remembered how bad this bill is. While it claims to secure the border, tough enforcement measures would only go into effect if there is a daily average of 5000 migrant encounters. Over one month, that would amount to 150,000 border crossings. The bill effectively legalizes illegal entry so long as it doesn’t surpass that high mark. The bill also increases legal immigration through the creation of 50,000 new green cards, a pathway to citizenship for Afghan migrants, and legal status to the children of H-1B workers. Worst of all, it would allow for the legalization of the millions of illegals who’ve come here under Biden.

Most border crossers claim asylum when they are apprehended. This allows them to stay in the country as they await  a hearing on their claim. The case backlog is so backed up that many illegals have court dates years in the future. The Senate deal sought to ease this backlog by taking the cases out of the courts and handing them to asylum officers. This gives liberal bureaucrats the power to accept the dubious claims of illegal immigrants and grant them asylum in the country. It’s effectively amnesty. Trump could not deport these folks unless he somehow stripped them all of asylum (a very difficult task). This measure would change our country for good and accelerate the Great Replacement. 

And this nightmare can come true if Jeffries becomes speaker. There are plenty of Republicans who are eager to vote for the immigration bill. It would pass the House if put to a vote.

Moreover, the bill’s passage may cost Trump the election. The whole purpose of the Senate deal is to obscure the immigration problem, not solve it. We’d still have hundreds of thousands of migrants streaming across the border. The difference is that there would be PR enforcement stunts and illegals would get permanent legal status. That would be enough to get the media to believe the problem is resolved and work to dupe the public to think it’s no longer a crisis. This would take away Trump’s most potent issue while achieving liberal ends. It’s the worst possible scenario. 

This scenario should refute the “accelerationists” who want things to get worse to wake up the masses. The masses won’t be shaken from their slumber over this. They will shrug their shoulders and go about their daily lives. Most people aren’t paying that close attention in the first place. The people paying attention are already aware of how bad things are. Things getting worse will likely demoralize them and convince them to focus on other things besides politics. Why invest your time into something you perceive as hopeless?

In most cases, worse is just worse and there is no silver lining. Most people will accept the new paradigm, and that’s that. 

The good news is that we still may be saved from this catastrophe. Unlike with McCarthy, Democrats are more likely to vote to keep Johnson as speaker. Even if Johnson is thrown out, Republicans may find a replacement the entire caucus votes for rather than leave open the possibility of a Speaker Jeffries. 

The smart move is just to keep Johnson. There’s too much at risk if he vacates the speakership.