The Sailer Strategy Reconsidered

Whites are 75 percent of the electorate—and yet the GOP keeps losing

It’s no secret that whites are disappearing in America. Turn on the TV and you’ll think our country is already majority-minority. Network TV shows will feature impossibly diverse casts while ads imagine a nation that’s half-black and the majority of couples are interracial. The erosion of whiteness is also seen in the real world. The majority of America’s population under 16 is now non-white. Whites are a minority among military recruits, and they’re not even a plurality among incoming freshmen at some elite universities. Since the George Floyd revolution, 94 percent of new jobs at S&P 100 companies went to non-whites. 

While the Great Replacement accelerates, there is one important area where whites dominate. Whites are still well over 70 percent of voters in America. In 2022, whites were 75 percent of the electorate. That’s an incredible fact considering America’s demographic trajectory. Despite the majority of  white voters favoring Republicans, the Grand Old Party hasn’t done so well in recent elections. A big reason for this is declining support for Republicans among college-educated whites. This was once a solid-red demographic—now it decides elections in favor of the Democrats.

This development should inspire a reconsideration of the “Sailer Strategy.” Named after the great writer Steve Sailer, this political theory says Republicans should maximize the white vote to win elections. This makes perfect sense considering the makeup of the electorate. The GOP would dominate every election if they managed to secure at least 65 percent of the white vote. 

Sailer believes the best way to do this is to appeal to the interests of whites. He believes the best way to do this is with immigration restriction, which would support white economic interests and slow down their demographic replacement. Other steps he’s suggested included support for affordable family formation (because married whites with kids are most likely to vote Republican) and taking away incentives for “marginally white people” (such as castizos) to identify as non-white. Opposition to affirmative action is another obvious feature of the Sailer Strategy.

These are great ideas. They’re necessary for the GOP to have any chance and they’re critical to restoring American greatness. Republicans about as close to adopting this electoral strategy as they’ve ever been. GOP lawmakers constantly rail against illegal immigration, with some of them even explicitly calling for restrictions on legal immigration. Many prominent figures within the party support tax credits for families. The Trump administration opposed the adoption of the “Middle Eastern and North African” category in the census to keep more marginally white people within the boundaries of whiteness. The conservative-led Supreme Court struck down affirmative action in universities, which did diminish some of the incentives for marginal whites to claim POC status.

Yet, the GOP isn’t having the election results it wants. Does that mean the Sailer Strategy is wrong? Absolutely not. But there’s more to consider here.

While Sailer has always stuck to his sound formula, other advocates of this strategy have wanted a more explicit appeal to white identity and populist economics. Many supporters of this idea believe the GOP needs to do more to win over working-class whites. 

This argument made sense when the strategy was first articulated in the pre-Trump era. At that time, the party didn’t do so well among working class whites. It was dominated by the likes of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. It primarily cared about business interests to the detriment of other considerations. Romney famously attacked 47 percent of Americans as “takers”—a figure that included many conservative whites. Romney’s unwise remark may explain why he lost the non-college educated vote in 2012.

Donald Trump corrected this error. He won in 2016 by appealing to the forgotten man. Non-college educated whites are now the GOP’s core voters. While Romney won the college-educated vote and lost the non-college educated vote in 2012, Trump’s GOP does the opposite. Trump won two-thirds of the non-college educated white vote in 2020, but lost the white college grads by three points. These figures remained virtually the same for the 2022 midterms when Trump was off the ballot. 

The GOP has firmly secured the working-class white vote. But by pursuing a strategy solely designed to please this demographic, it’s lost its grip on middle- and upper-class whites. This is a problem primarily because college-educated whites are more likely to vote than working-class whites. Republican electoral strategy now depends on getting massive white working-class turnout. It’s not a terrible strategy as it can produce impressive results. Trump’s 2016 victory is an obvious example. Another is Glenn Youngkin. The Virginia governor won in 2021 by mobilizing rural areas to turn out in droves. He did this with a campaign centered on opposition to lockdowns and wokeness in schools. He also did slightly better among college-educated whites thanks to his inoffensive persona and avoidance of social issues. Youngkin’s campaign managed to win a state that was widely-considered to be solid blue.

It’s been hard for the party to recreate this success. Lockdowns are gone, taking away an issue that pushes reluctant voters to the polls. The other problem is abortion. Democrats have successfully used this issue to generate higher turnout and fundraising for their own side. Lockdowns could get otherwise non-voters out to the polls for the GOP. Abortion gets otherwise non-voters out to the polls for the Democrats. Abortion also further hurts Republicans among college-educated whites.

The GOP now relies on a version of the Sailer Strategy, but it struggles to win a super-majority of whites. What is to be done? 

Much of the Dissident Right still believes the problem is that the party doesn’t win enough of the white working class vote. The favored solution is to adopt left-wing economics and say they’re explicitly for whites. But we’ve probably maxed out our support among non-college educated whites. The other problem is that this strategy wouldn’t do well among actual voters. 

Studies show Trump voters aren’t enthusiastic about left-wing economics. White voters don’t operate like black voters either. They would find it weird if they were offered racial goodies in the same way black communities are. No one expects white reparations or white-only criminal justice reform. If anything, that would lose the GOP more of the white vote because whites are uncomfortable with explicit racial appeals. The GOP embracing white nationalism isn’t going to win them over in the immediate future. In any case, the chances of this happening are nil, so it’s not worth suggesting.

Several conservatives believe the real electoral problem is Trump. While Trump’s style and legal problems may be off-putting to college-educated whites, he also inspires massive turnout among non-college-educated whites. Many solid Republican voters would stay home if the party became anti-Trump. It’s impossible for the party to divorce itself from its most popular leader. He has dominated every primary contest and is beloved by the base. Additionally, Trump is much more moderate than his Republican opponents. Trump avoids abortion as much as he can and recently came out strongly in support of IVF. Both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley tried to out pro-life Trump in the primary with dismal results. 

Yet, the pro-life, anti-IVF position is what conservatives think the party should be even more zealous about. While elected Republicans come out in favor of IVF, the conservative commentariat demands the party ban it. The same people also want a ban on birth control. Both ideas are deeply unpopular with the public. Sixty-six percent of Americans oppose the Alabama Supreme Court ruling that potentially restricted IVF. Only 19 percent of Americans say they back a ban on emergency contraception. Eighty percent of Americans, including 72 percent of Republicans, say it’s important to them to keep birth control legal. 

It should be noted that many of the people demanding bans on IVF and birth control say Trump shouldn’t be the nominee because he’s too unelectable. Self-awareness isn’t their strong suit.

Abortion was the issue that cost Republicans the 2022 midterms. It could cost them the 2024 election if they adopt Con Inc.’s posturing on the issue. College-educated whites, whether we like it or not, are repelled by these stances.

There is a counter to the Sailer Strategy favored by some on the Right. Rather than maximize the white vote, they want to maximize the BASED minority vote to compensate for fleeing white voters. This was best articulated by Rep. Matt Gaetz, who recently said: “This is the blue-collar realignment of the Republican Party, and what I can tell you is for every Karen we lose, there’s a Julio and a Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement.” The GOP won a relatively high number of Julios and Jamals in the midterms, and yet it still received disappointing results. It’s better to receive over 60 of the white vote than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. This is just a cope to double-down on the clownishness that dominates the Right.

Post-liberals like Sohrab Ahmari essentially argue for the same strategy as Gaetz, but with a clearer demand for Republicans to move left economically and emphasize social conservatism. This is a great strategy to lose even more voters. No one outside of conservative intellectual circles wants pro-life socialism. Trump voters care far more about the identity issues than abortion and they think socialism sucks. Republicans would just alienate their own voters with this appeal.

The Sailer Strategy is still the best way for Republicans to win elections. Whites will still be at least 70 percent of the electorate for the foreseeable future. Black turnout is in serious decline and Hispanic turnout has never been high. Whites are still the key to victory. But to get to winning 65 percent of the white vote, we need to make some adjustments. The first is to follow Trump’s lead and deemphasize the abortion issue. This is not a call to be pro-choice or for state Republicans to give up on the issue. Our national leaders just need to focus on other issues and say it’s a matter for the states. Republicans will still take a hit for it, but it will be mitigated and it will keep evangelicals happy.

The second step is to reduce the clownishness. Trump gets away with it because he is one of the most entertaining people in the world. His style attracts people who would never vote. He combines the comedy routine with serious political ideas. He single-handedly made the GOP more immigration restrictionist while making fun of reporters. His style puts off a number of people, but it works for him. He can still win national elections.

The same cannot be said for his imitators. They’re just clowns. Republicans like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene are not funny at all—at least not intentionally. They’re just embarrassing. Nobody takes their political stance seriously, and they themselves don’t seem to either. The clown show, not identity issues, takes center stage for Trumpism without Trump. It’s all a race to the bottom to win over the lowest-common denominator while not having a point at all. Trump has a point. The Insane Clown Party doesn’t.

It would be much better if Trump was succeeded by Youngkin-types who took the identity issues seriously. Youngkin himself is too squishy to fulfill this hope. But there are others who come much closer, such as Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. 

The GOP turning into the ICP would ensure the Sailer Strategy can never be enacted. The party would dedicate itself to stupid stunts and rap songs about owning the libs. Middle-class whites don’t want to be associated with that. They want a party to fight for their interests, not one that forces them to be stupid.