I think the vibe shift has more to do with high prices and inflation instead of mass deportations.
On RCP, Trump’s handling of the economy is at -25 while his handling of immigration is -8, a 17 point difference.
The mass deportations may have hurt Trump a bit with independents, but what’s really driving Republicans to sour on him is the economy. Trump at a -18 overall approval rating gives leftists “permission” to attack Trump. The Iran War has exacerbated the economic problems.
If the midterms were a referendum on the mass deportations, Republicans would do fine. But if the midterms are a referendum on the economy, then Democrats could get their wave. It may already be too late, but it’s imperative the Iran War be ended as soon as possible, no matter the shrieking from the Israel lobby.
They've wound down the deportations to a significant degree but the economy (which just means prices to voters) isn't good and the war is seen as unnecessarily having a bad effect on it.
They did not wind down deportations at all, they're accelerating. Just because people have the attention spans of goldfish and no object permanence does not mean that physical reality has changed.
The Iran War and gas prices definitely hurt a lot but like Scott said this all started a long time before that. People never had the stomach for anything perceived as mean or bad optics.
It’s true the vibe shift started before the Iran War. That being said, the Iran War pushed Trump into Biden level unpopularity, not deportations.
Throughout Trump’s second term, his approval rating for immigration has always been better than his approval for the economy, often by 10-20 points. If mass deportations were the number one issue driving the vibe shift, we’d see it at the issue level polling.
In Trump’s first term, his approval over the economy provided a buffer for people’s negative views of his immigration policy. In the second term, it’s the reverse.
I'm not talking about the economics, which we could have a vigorous debate about. I am of the opinion that exponential trade deficits are a problem.
I'm talking about how any inflation that happens can be blamed on tariffs. It's not a good place to spend political capital, and Trump is spending lots of political capital.
Cutting healthcare subsidies is political capital. Tariffs are political capital. Iran is political capital. Deportations are political capital. His personal corruption is political capital.
Winning 51% of the vote isn't enough political capital to do all these things.
Right after the last election, it felt like you could be open about your politics if your politics weren't elite progressive. “Vibe shift,” I was told. “Silent majority,” I was told. So I started being a little more open. I wasn't wearing a MAGA hat to work, but I tentatively rolled the idea around that I didn't have to live a double life, that I didn't have to live in fear of losing my job.
That lasted about three months. I lost three friends who still won't text me back. Then it became clear: WE might have won an election. But THEY still controlled higher ed, big tech, legacy media, Hollywood, journalism. They still control everything. Minneapolis drove this home for me. America wanted mass deportations. Until legacy media and a small percentage of motivated activists convinced America we didn't.
Every artist being terrified of coming out against the elite progressive regime isn't new. It isn't a vibe shift. It just means that nothing changed. Until we have parallel institutions, we can't be surprised that the side that has captured all the levers of power gets to control the temperature.
There’s a lot of truth to this, though I think the ICE raids aren’t the decisive factor necessarily. The Newark attacks are done by the same dedicated base of leftist terrorist we’ve been dealing with for 10 years.
I think underrated is the murder of Charlie Kirk. It effectively killed RW ground game among the youth, turned Kirk into a joke, and within days leftist cockroach Adam Cochran had created a counter narrative that a Groyper had done it, which even Jimmy Kimmel repeated, and leftists pushed this lie everywhere—confusing and placating all the angry Facebook moms who then wrote off left wing terror.
Then you get Candance Owens and the Retard Right turning the whole thing into the most batshit conspiracy theory you’ve ever heard, which also worked to diminish TPUSA.
Worst of all, you wouldn’t even have the Newark riots if Trump and Blondi did their job and went after leftist terror. He had a short window, with a ton of political capital to crush leftists and he didn’t. We know who is funding these groups, how and where they organize, and they just did nothing. Leftists became even more confident, realizing they can kill or impede us and nothing will happen to them, no consequences will result. And they’ve been on that high ever since. The feckless response taught them that Trump can be impeded, and that if you can win an argument just shoot people.
The murder of Charlie Kirk is the biggest catastrophe in Trump’s second term. Trump has been wildly successful with his deportations, but not being able to leverage Charlie’s murder to go after leftists has been a terrible failure
Even before Scott posted this article I was just saying today, that so much of these leftists attacking ICE facilities and their resurgent dominance could have been stopped with a massive crackdown and making it déclassé to be a leftist. We were put through worse after UTR and Jan6
I think Trump gets that extreme measures have to be used ro put down left wing violence. But Trump can only do what a unanimous Republican can get behind. Another problem with the Iran War is the loss of political capital that would have been needed to carry out a “scary” crackdown.
He might have believed that, but I think the bigger issue is the lack of right wing lawyers and legal staff to actually help out with these cases. Most law students are forced to work for leftist NGOs or law firms while students or any prospective lawyer was discouraged from going to school by their conservative parents.
Scott, it isn’t rocket science. The economy is awful for most people, and Trump won’t just admit it and promise to do better; he needs to insist it is your fault.
People hate that they are struggling while he is $5 billion richer, lecturing them about the value of sacrificing for the country and saying Hunter Biden working for Burisma like 10 years ago is the real extent of corruption.
Also, his disastrous, illegal, unethical war in Iran has cost him the moral high ground.
I have said people are sick of Trump. You have now basically admitted it.
Let American monoculture rot & die! The "stars" so Ef word uppity, they think they're better than the POTUS & real Americans that elected him! Trump is the only "star" of any true value among them ALL! Zoomis & Alpha only really care about real organic culture made by EACH OTHER Online & can't even sit through a force fed Hollywood movie! That & ... you know.. Ye selling the biggest concert tickets after singing "HH!" But Ye was always Online too.
Poetry is nice but live music sucks. IDK how anyone actually enjoys it, truly! Went to ONE CONCERT where my poor older sister that drove me got gropped & the sound was so bad I couldn't even tell what song was being sung. Everyone smelled bad & it was too hot!
Don't Americans have enough entertainment? Like CONSTANT? What would live music be compared to The Phone? Maybe we don't try to get our morals from Star Wars or Badass Cowboys? But, hey, that's how Propaganda works!
When the Gay Race Commie Propaganda machine finally finishes falling off the American core like the gangrene it is, it will (& already has) take A LOT of Useful Idiots with it! But those that have rejected Hollywood Leftism as lunacy will survive!
I'm not talking about the economics, which we could have a vigorous debate about. I am of the opinion that exponential trade deficits are a problem.
I'm talking about how any inflation that happens can be blamed on tariffs. It's not a good place to spend political capital, and Trump is spending lots of political capital.
Cutting healthcare subsidies is political capital. Tariffs are political capital. Iran is political capital. Deportations are political capital. His personal corruption is political capital.
Winning 51% of the vote isn't enough political capital to do all these things.
What I have noticed in my hometown, is that the local Spurs NBA franchise has surpassed and eclipsed this Nath'l 250th pride. In '76 there were many celebrations and block-parties for Natn'l pride. Perhaps it is safer (more neutral) to support the Spurs than the USA today. This would be a fruit of the Public Institutions. Thanks for the info.
I left another comment, but aside from the reaction to Charlie Kirk’s murder showing how inconsequential fighting Trump is for leftists, we can’t forget Trump getting pushed out of LA by rampaging foreigners. That ought to have invited a massive response but instead he did nothing, pulled out and bombed Iran.
The first Iran bombing was the first major hurdle the Trump administration suffered. The Epstein shit didn’t help, but bombing Iran, especially while a major American city was literally on fire, was exceptionally dumb. Even if the operation turned out okay, it began a lot of the “Israel controls America” stuff that normies have all adopted
I know your entire mood and worldview hinges on this being the case, but stop looking so thirsty. Trump had to do hard things this term and if he’s unpopular with the slop-desperate unwashed masses, whatever.
I think the vibe shift has more to do with high prices and inflation instead of mass deportations.
On RCP, Trump’s handling of the economy is at -25 while his handling of immigration is -8, a 17 point difference.
The mass deportations may have hurt Trump a bit with independents, but what’s really driving Republicans to sour on him is the economy. Trump at a -18 overall approval rating gives leftists “permission” to attack Trump. The Iran War has exacerbated the economic problems.
If the midterms were a referendum on the mass deportations, Republicans would do fine. But if the midterms are a referendum on the economy, then Democrats could get their wave. It may already be too late, but it’s imperative the Iran War be ended as soon as possible, no matter the shrieking from the Israel lobby.
They've wound down the deportations to a significant degree but the economy (which just means prices to voters) isn't good and the war is seen as unnecessarily having a bad effect on it.
They did not wind down deportations at all, they're accelerating. Just because people have the attention spans of goldfish and no object permanence does not mean that physical reality has changed.
The Iran War and gas prices definitely hurt a lot but like Scott said this all started a long time before that. People never had the stomach for anything perceived as mean or bad optics.
It’s true the vibe shift started before the Iran War. That being said, the Iran War pushed Trump into Biden level unpopularity, not deportations.
Throughout Trump’s second term, his approval rating for immigration has always been better than his approval for the economy, often by 10-20 points. If mass deportations were the number one issue driving the vibe shift, we’d see it at the issue level polling.
In Trump’s first term, his approval over the economy provided a buffer for people’s negative views of his immigration policy. In the second term, it’s the reverse.
Tariffs were a mistake.
I'm not talking about the economics, which we could have a vigorous debate about. I am of the opinion that exponential trade deficits are a problem.
I'm talking about how any inflation that happens can be blamed on tariffs. It's not a good place to spend political capital, and Trump is spending lots of political capital.
Cutting healthcare subsidies is political capital. Tariffs are political capital. Iran is political capital. Deportations are political capital. His personal corruption is political capital.
Winning 51% of the vote isn't enough political capital to do all these things.
Right after the last election, it felt like you could be open about your politics if your politics weren't elite progressive. “Vibe shift,” I was told. “Silent majority,” I was told. So I started being a little more open. I wasn't wearing a MAGA hat to work, but I tentatively rolled the idea around that I didn't have to live a double life, that I didn't have to live in fear of losing my job.
That lasted about three months. I lost three friends who still won't text me back. Then it became clear: WE might have won an election. But THEY still controlled higher ed, big tech, legacy media, Hollywood, journalism. They still control everything. Minneapolis drove this home for me. America wanted mass deportations. Until legacy media and a small percentage of motivated activists convinced America we didn't.
Every artist being terrified of coming out against the elite progressive regime isn't new. It isn't a vibe shift. It just means that nothing changed. Until we have parallel institutions, we can't be surprised that the side that has captured all the levers of power gets to control the temperature.
Yes You are on target. Follow Christopher F Rufo. He wr ote an eye-opening book: America's Cultural Revolution. The Rot is very Deep! Blessings!
There’s a lot of truth to this, though I think the ICE raids aren’t the decisive factor necessarily. The Newark attacks are done by the same dedicated base of leftist terrorist we’ve been dealing with for 10 years.
I think underrated is the murder of Charlie Kirk. It effectively killed RW ground game among the youth, turned Kirk into a joke, and within days leftist cockroach Adam Cochran had created a counter narrative that a Groyper had done it, which even Jimmy Kimmel repeated, and leftists pushed this lie everywhere—confusing and placating all the angry Facebook moms who then wrote off left wing terror.
Then you get Candance Owens and the Retard Right turning the whole thing into the most batshit conspiracy theory you’ve ever heard, which also worked to diminish TPUSA.
Worst of all, you wouldn’t even have the Newark riots if Trump and Blondi did their job and went after leftist terror. He had a short window, with a ton of political capital to crush leftists and he didn’t. We know who is funding these groups, how and where they organize, and they just did nothing. Leftists became even more confident, realizing they can kill or impede us and nothing will happen to them, no consequences will result. And they’ve been on that high ever since. The feckless response taught them that Trump can be impeded, and that if you can win an argument just shoot people.
The murder of Charlie Kirk is the biggest catastrophe in Trump’s second term. Trump has been wildly successful with his deportations, but not being able to leverage Charlie’s murder to go after leftists has been a terrible failure
Even before Scott posted this article I was just saying today, that so much of these leftists attacking ICE facilities and their resurgent dominance could have been stopped with a massive crackdown and making it déclassé to be a leftist. We were put through worse after UTR and Jan6
I think Trump gets that extreme measures have to be used ro put down left wing violence. But Trump can only do what a unanimous Republican can get behind. Another problem with the Iran War is the loss of political capital that would have been needed to carry out a “scary” crackdown.
He might have believed that, but I think the bigger issue is the lack of right wing lawyers and legal staff to actually help out with these cases. Most law students are forced to work for leftist NGOs or law firms while students or any prospective lawyer was discouraged from going to school by their conservative parents.
Scott, it isn’t rocket science. The economy is awful for most people, and Trump won’t just admit it and promise to do better; he needs to insist it is your fault.
People hate that they are struggling while he is $5 billion richer, lecturing them about the value of sacrificing for the country and saying Hunter Biden working for Burisma like 10 years ago is the real extent of corruption.
Also, his disastrous, illegal, unethical war in Iran has cost him the moral high ground.
I have said people are sick of Trump. You have now basically admitted it.
There's a lot of delusion regarding the immigration raids, the effect on the economy and on the hearts and minds of the average American.
Let American monoculture rot & die! The "stars" so Ef word uppity, they think they're better than the POTUS & real Americans that elected him! Trump is the only "star" of any true value among them ALL! Zoomis & Alpha only really care about real organic culture made by EACH OTHER Online & can't even sit through a force fed Hollywood movie! That & ... you know.. Ye selling the biggest concert tickets after singing "HH!" But Ye was always Online too.
Poetry is nice but live music sucks. IDK how anyone actually enjoys it, truly! Went to ONE CONCERT where my poor older sister that drove me got gropped & the sound was so bad I couldn't even tell what song was being sung. Everyone smelled bad & it was too hot!
Don't Americans have enough entertainment? Like CONSTANT? What would live music be compared to The Phone? Maybe we don't try to get our morals from Star Wars or Badass Cowboys? But, hey, that's how Propaganda works!
When the Gay Race Commie Propaganda machine finally finishes falling off the American core like the gangrene it is, it will (& already has) take A LOT of Useful Idiots with it! But those that have rejected Hollywood Leftism as lunacy will survive!
Tariffs were a mistake.
I'm not talking about the economics, which we could have a vigorous debate about. I am of the opinion that exponential trade deficits are a problem.
I'm talking about how any inflation that happens can be blamed on tariffs. It's not a good place to spend political capital, and Trump is spending lots of political capital.
Cutting healthcare subsidies is political capital. Tariffs are political capital. Iran is political capital. Deportations are political capital. His personal corruption is political capital.
Winning 51% of the vote isn't enough political capital to do all these things.
I trust that the homosexual millennial running the White House’s twitter account will post the perfect meme to get the vibes back on track.
What I have noticed in my hometown, is that the local Spurs NBA franchise has surpassed and eclipsed this Nath'l 250th pride. In '76 there were many celebrations and block-parties for Natn'l pride. Perhaps it is safer (more neutral) to support the Spurs than the USA today. This would be a fruit of the Public Institutions. Thanks for the info.
This is 100% Trump’s betrayal of MAGA in favor of MIGA. Fatal for the movement. If Vance doesn’t disavow Israel the dems will win.
I left another comment, but aside from the reaction to Charlie Kirk’s murder showing how inconsequential fighting Trump is for leftists, we can’t forget Trump getting pushed out of LA by rampaging foreigners. That ought to have invited a massive response but instead he did nothing, pulled out and bombed Iran.
The first Iran bombing was the first major hurdle the Trump administration suffered. The Epstein shit didn’t help, but bombing Iran, especially while a major American city was literally on fire, was exceptionally dumb. Even if the operation turned out okay, it began a lot of the “Israel controls America” stuff that normies have all adopted
Dear God.
In the first Trump term, not even speaking out against Trump would get a celebrity accused of being a Trump supporter
I feel like now people just don’t want to be seen as MAGA. I do wonder how different it would be in 2028 if Rubio or Vance run or win.
I think Rubio whatever you think of him would probably be the polarizing Republican president since the pre-2000s. Idk about Vance
Is it so hard to accept people are sick of Trump ?
I don’t think anyone is denying that Trump is unpopular now compared to January 2025.
I reject the notion that we should freak out over this. We just need the economy to stabilize and gas prices to go down.
They never will with the war he started
I know your entire mood and worldview hinges on this being the case, but stop looking so thirsty. Trump had to do hard things this term and if he’s unpopular with the slop-desperate unwashed masses, whatever.