1) Most of the polls showing big Harris leads are stale interviews (a couple weeks old during the peak of the Harris hoopla after the switcheroo). They are deliberately holding these back and releasing them stragetically to bolster the narrative.
2) If you dig into the internals of a lot of these polls, they show ridiculous red flags like Harris tied with Whites or being competitive with working-class Whites. Or Harris wining seniors and Trump winning 18-35, etc.
3) Ridiculous samples (way too female, way too nonwhite, way too educated). Some have Whites at 62 or so percent of the electorate when they are really closer to 70%. And of course ridiculous D+10 samples like Qunnipiac (these clowns had Biden winning Iowa, Ohio and Florida in 2020 and Desantis competitive with Trump in the primary).
3) Typical August response bias (conservatives are on vacation and are not talking to pollsters). Dems always have big polling leads in August.
4) Trump always overperforms polling because a lot of his working-class base doesn't speak to pollsters.
5) Even a Harris + 2 nationally is a Trump electoral college win. She needs to win the national popular vote win by 4-5 (Biden won it by 4.5 IIRC and barely "won" the EC by 40k votes in 3 states). She is much weaker than Biden with the older WWC voters in the 3 blue wall states.
6) Good pollsters like Rasmussen and the one for the Daily Mail today show Trump national leads of 2-5. Which is an EC blowout.
Some caveats about the polls:
1) Most of the polls showing big Harris leads are stale interviews (a couple weeks old during the peak of the Harris hoopla after the switcheroo). They are deliberately holding these back and releasing them stragetically to bolster the narrative.
2) If you dig into the internals of a lot of these polls, they show ridiculous red flags like Harris tied with Whites or being competitive with working-class Whites. Or Harris wining seniors and Trump winning 18-35, etc.
3) Ridiculous samples (way too female, way too nonwhite, way too educated). Some have Whites at 62 or so percent of the electorate when they are really closer to 70%. And of course ridiculous D+10 samples like Qunnipiac (these clowns had Biden winning Iowa, Ohio and Florida in 2020 and Desantis competitive with Trump in the primary).
3) Typical August response bias (conservatives are on vacation and are not talking to pollsters). Dems always have big polling leads in August.
4) Trump always overperforms polling because a lot of his working-class base doesn't speak to pollsters.
5) Even a Harris + 2 nationally is a Trump electoral college win. She needs to win the national popular vote win by 4-5 (Biden won it by 4.5 IIRC and barely "won" the EC by 40k votes in 3 states). She is much weaker than Biden with the older WWC voters in the 3 blue wall states.
6) Good pollsters like Rasmussen and the one for the Daily Mail today show Trump national leads of 2-5. Which is an EC blowout.