Trump is now saying he wants to massively increase H1B visas and every immigrant who has a 2 or 4yr degree will qualify. This will dim the job prospects of Americans. This is pure stupidity and will cost Trump the election. If any college educated suburbanites were undecided they won't be after hearing that garbage.
I don't think it's very likely Trump loses unless he does something really stupid like picking Tim Scott for VP. I agree that the biggest risk is the dems mail-in vote operation in the "blue wall" states, especially if RFK ends up taking votes from him, getting these states close enough for the 3AM ballot dumps to make up Biden's deficit. Fortunately, RFK's campaign is incompetent, and he is only on the ballot in MI AFAIK, and the clock is running out.
Jailing Trump would backfire massively so I don't think the dems will do it. And the Supreme Court would likely intervene if they did.
While it's true now that low-propensity voters are Republicans, they will turn out if Trump is on the ballot. They stayed home in 2022 because of crappy candidates like Oz, Blake Masters and Adam Laxalt (whose campaign was run by the same idiot consultants who ran Desantis' campaign). Some of these voters did turn out for Kari Lake, and it was very close (and they had to rig the voting machines to steal it).
As far as the gap in polling between Generic Republicans and Trump, look no further than Ohio in 2012 and Ohio in 2016. Romney lost the state by 3 points IIRC, but Trump wins it by 8 or 9. There are a bunch of White Working Class voters, especially in the Rust Belt, that don't like most Republicans but love Trump.
Trump is now saying he wants to massively increase H1B visas and every immigrant who has a 2 or 4yr degree will qualify. This will dim the job prospects of Americans. This is pure stupidity and will cost Trump the election. If any college educated suburbanites were undecided they won't be after hearing that garbage.
I don't think it's very likely Trump loses unless he does something really stupid like picking Tim Scott for VP. I agree that the biggest risk is the dems mail-in vote operation in the "blue wall" states, especially if RFK ends up taking votes from him, getting these states close enough for the 3AM ballot dumps to make up Biden's deficit. Fortunately, RFK's campaign is incompetent, and he is only on the ballot in MI AFAIK, and the clock is running out.
Jailing Trump would backfire massively so I don't think the dems will do it. And the Supreme Court would likely intervene if they did.
While it's true now that low-propensity voters are Republicans, they will turn out if Trump is on the ballot. They stayed home in 2022 because of crappy candidates like Oz, Blake Masters and Adam Laxalt (whose campaign was run by the same idiot consultants who ran Desantis' campaign). Some of these voters did turn out for Kari Lake, and it was very close (and they had to rig the voting machines to steal it).
As far as the gap in polling between Generic Republicans and Trump, look no further than Ohio in 2012 and Ohio in 2016. Romney lost the state by 3 points IIRC, but Trump wins it by 8 or 9. There are a bunch of White Working Class voters, especially in the Rust Belt, that don't like most Republicans but love Trump.