Neo-Never Trumpism Will Sink DeSantis

The base wants a firm defense of Trump, not snide remarks about Stormy Daniels

Ron DeSantis finally commented on the possible indictment against Donald Trump on Monday. The statement was a bit odd. Unlike some other 2024 hopefuls, the Florida governor was ambiguous and half-hearted in his statement on the investigation. He insisted he is “not getting involved in it in any way.” 

“I have no interest in getting involved in some type of manufactured circus by some Soros DA,” the governor said of the case by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. “He’s trying to do a political spectacle… I’ve got real issues I’ve got to deal with here in the state of Florida.” He made sure poke at Trump in his statement. “I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair,” DeSantis said at the news conference. “I just, I can’t speak to that.”

This statement was cheered on by DeSantis’s rabid supporters on Twitter, but it’s not going to do him any favors with the Republican base. The base still loves Trump and resents criticism of him. The RealClearPolitics average puts Trump at 44 percent support among GOP primary voters. The vast majority of Republicans view the former president favorably, even if they may prefer another candidate at the moment. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of Trump in a February poll. 

Republicans stuck with Trump throughout his many scandals in his presidency. His base grew more defensive of the president when he was impeached and they were not bothered by the Stormy Daniels controversy (which is the root of the possible indictment). The FBI raid on Trump’s residence last August increased his support among Republicans. It’s likely the same thing will occur if he’s indicted by Alvin Bragg. 

DeSantis’s dismissive message isn’t what the base wants to hear. The GOP base sees an indictment on themselves. They do not see it as a minor issue. This sentiment was better captured by fellow 2024 hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy. 

"It is un-American for the ruling party to use police power to arrest its political rivals," Ramaswamy tweeted last week. "This will mark a dark moment in American history and will undermine public trust in our electoral system itself. I call on the Manhattan District Attorney to reconsider this action and to put aside partisan politics in service of preserving our Constitutional republic.”

He strongly denounced the prosecution in clear terms. The statement directly connects with the base’s rage and stresses the importance of the indictment. There are no snide remarks or declarations that Ramaswamy will not get involved. Ramaswamy realizes the base still likes Trump and he would doom his candidacy if he took Trump head-on. It’s much smarter to offer support for the Republican leader.

Trump is most likely to win the Republican nomination–so long as he stays in the race. The best hope for the others is that Trump drops out. The event likely to persuade Trump to drop out is mounting legal problems. However, if Trump does drop out, that does not mean his complete disappearance from the political scene. The Donald’s shadow will still hover over the GOP primary and Trump will still be able to make or break candidates. DeSantis has earned Trump’s enmity. The only way he could change that is through aggressive defense of the former president against legal prosecutions. The governor has opted not to do this, further inviting Trump’s hostility.

Many conservatives believe DeSantis can take Trump head-on. They urge the governor to start attacking the former president in the belief that it will destroy the Orange Menace. Meghan McCain’s husband Ben Domenech provided the latest example of this argument in an article that demanded Ron call Don a “loser.” Domenech realizes that “getting pushed around by a bully for months is no way to introduce yourself as the new alpha commander-in-chief candidate.” So he suggests DeSantis hit back with the “right blow.” “Calling Trump a loser is pretty much the worst thing you can say to him — but it may be what someone has to do in the lead-up to 2024 to beat him,” Domenech concludes.

People like Rick Wilson argued back in 2016 that bringing up Trump’s “tiny hands” will be the killshot. Marco Rubio followed the advice and promptly got crushed in the Super Tuesday primaries. DeSantis is even less charismatic than Rubio and more awkward on the stump. The governor trying to one-up Trump will just lead to Trump bullying him even more and turning off Republican voters from Ron. Like with the tiny hands discourse in 2016, attacks on Trump will only excite the conservative commentariat on Twitter, but it will fall flat with actual primary voters. Ordinary Republicans like Trump more now than they did in 2016. It’s a huge gamble for an uncharismatic politician who owes his career to Trump to try to beat the former president at his own game.

Conservative media, in its infinite stupidity, thinks this is a smart move. 

We’re witnessing a new kind of Never Trumpism. Call it Neo-Never Trumpism. This new formation combines the old conservative guard that Trump beat in 2016 with alleged populists who feel Trump betrayed them. Some attack Trump on the same grounds conservatives lambasted him before he became president. Others claim Trump is insufficiently America First. Whatever the reasons, the Neo-Never Trumper tone is the same as it was before Trump became president. They criticize Trump like jilted ex-lovers. The tone is shrill and bitter. And, like the old Never Trumpers, their ire eventually turns to Trump supporters, mocking them as stupid rubes. This rhetoric is self-defeating in real-world politics, but it gets a lot of engagement on Twitter. So people double down on Trump Derangement even if it alienates the typical Republican voter. 

Never Trumpers are deluding themselves into believing they can finally beat Trump this time.  They couldn’t be more wrong. The GOP base sees Trump as its leader. The more persecuted he is, the more devoted they will be. His charisma and ability to insult is unrivaled by any other candidate. Any Republican who wades into the mud with Trump will end up like Marco Rubio. Trump is the master of bullying and DeSantis can’t challenge that. 

The only viable path for a non-Trump candidate is to follow Vivek Ramaswamy’s strategy. The Indian businessman’s fervent defense of Trump earned praise from the man himself. If Trump did drop out, he would more likely endorse Ramaswamy than some other candidates. Trump would at least not dedicate his energy to kneecapping Ramaswamy’s candidacy. The same can’t be said for DeSantis.

The GOP nominee will be Trump unless legal problems persuade him to drop out. If the nominee is not Trump, the victorious candidate will be the one who best positions himself as the loyal successor to the former president. 

DeSantis is not making that pitch. He’s appealing to his online fan base to the detriment of his own political fortunes. Neo-Never Trumpism is a political dead end.