Political Affiliation Ethnogenesis

Red vs. Blue polarization creates two quasi-ethnic groups

Tucker Carlson, known for popularizing the Great Replacement theory, is now unsure that demographics are destiny. In an interview with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton last month, the conservative commentator said he’s changed his mind on how demographic change impacts politics. Tucker asked Paxton how long Texas has until it turns blue. Paxton said it’s not guaranteed if the Republicans offer “opportunities” and “freedom.” Carlson then discussed the demographic question after the AG said “it doesn’t matter what your skin color is.”

Tucker said he thought Paxton was right and CLAIMED he was “embarrassed to say” that he once bought that “demographics is destiny.” He qualified that there still is a lot of truth to that idea, but said Texas proves that demographic change doesn't doom the GOP. Paxton replied with platitudes about how Hispanics are natural conservatives. Tucker agreed that Hispanics are conservative (“Look at El Salvador”) and blamed California turning blue on white liberals, pointing to Gavin Newsom as an example. The commentator says the Right needs to focus on breaking down the political machines that push Hispanics to vote Democratic.

This was an odd conversation guaranteed to rile up right-wingers. The Great Replacement is a core belief on the Dissident Right. To dismiss it is bound to cause grief, especially if it’s Tucker doing so. However, there are some things to consider. For one, Tucker was humoring his guest. Paxton is a pretty good Republican, but don’t expect him to make keyed arguments. Tucker readily agrees with his guests if he likes them. He’s a friendly guy. His recent South Africa episode shows he still gets demographics and the threat of white dispossession.

While articulated in a cringe manner, Tucker did have a point about Hispanic voting patterns. Forty-five percent of them voted for Trump in the last election. This change was a factor in making Florida and Texas more Republican. The new demographics aren’t working out as Democrats hoped.

The interview conveys a common assumption on the mainstream Right. Many conservatives believe what’s most important for a person living in the country is that they vote Republican. They can speak any language, practice any religion, or be any color; so long as they vote GOP, they’re welcome in the Red tribe. Political affiliation pushes aside race and class to become the most important identity here.

In some ways, Red American and Blue American are new ethnic groups. The Red-Blue dynamic determines the values, culture, behaviors, and how these people see themselves. It’s not quite what we would expect from traditional ethnic groups. There’s not a difference in language or ancestry here. It’s just a matter of politics. But in modern America, that’s sufficient to create new tribes.

The desire for Republican voters to be a tribe common to conservative thinking. One can see this in how conservatives discuss Democrats. Democrats are not spoken about as merely another party. They are spoken about as an enemy group that has not changed in nearly 200 years of existence. The way “Democrat” is spoken is almost like the way a Croat would speak of a Serb. It’s an ancestral enemy responsible for slavery, the Confederacy, segregation, and many other things the current Democratic Party bears little relation to. But that doesn’t dissuade the likes of Dinesh D’Souza. They still see the antebellum planter in Pramila Jayapal.

Conservatives will sometimes even use “Democrat” when they mean “black.” Ted Cruz provided a famous example when he claimed Democrats commit the majority of crime in America. He didn’t mean white liberals. Republicans also love to point out how crime-ridden “Democrat-controlled” cities are. Liberals claim these are racist dog whistles, but conservatives don’t actually pick them up. Many of them genuinely think the problem is Democrats. If you told them it’s actually blacks, they would vigorously deny that and say they just need Republicans in charge.

When conservatives still discussed “National Divorce” (RIP to that idea) they did not imagine America splitting off along the lines of region, race, or anything else. The division was between Red States and Blue States. Some even got more creative in their maps, giving away Democratic areas in red states to Blue America and Republican areas in blue states to Red America. The cause for the separation was political differences, not racial conflict or regional animosity. It entirely boiled down to party affiliation. This underscores conservatives ethnic view of party differences.

Most of these examples are culled from conservative rhetoric. Democrats are less wedded to their party identity, at least from a heritage standpoint.. Democrats prefer to not acknowledge the white men who founded their party. Jefferson-Jackson Dinners are no longer politically correct. They no longer honor Woodrow Wilson and many other Democratic luminaries. They’re not even that thrilled with FDR anymore. Being a Democrat does not assign an ancestry to its adherents. It’s just a party that advances its constituents’ current interests. The “Dems R The Real Racist” rolls off them because they’re happy to condemn Andrew Jackson, southern Democrats, and any others who run afoul of political correctness. It doesn’t change what they are about today.

“Dems R The Real Racist” is about solidifying Republican group identity, not undermining Democratic support. Party affiliation gives them a strong sense of who they are and what heritage they claim. It’s different for Democrats.

While this party identity may be stronger with conservatives, political polarization affects both sides of the aisle. People assort themselves based on politics. It now determines who your friends are, who you marry, and even where you choose to live. Liberals are notorious for cutting off family members who voted for Trump and frequently tell pollsters they refuse to date across the aisle. Tens of thousands of conservatives migrated from blue states to red states after COVID. In some cases, they went from fairly white states to places where whites are already a minority. That didn’t matter. What mattered is that they were RED.

Political affiliation is deeply important in America. It’s why movie studios and pundits commonly imagine a civil war breaking out along these lines.

Tribalism is endemic to human experience. In America, there are many group identities from which to glom on to. Right now, political identity is the most prone to drive conflict rather than race or class. The last elections showed a racially depolarizing America (at least at the ballot box). Republicans still stand as the white party while Democrats stand as the “white suck” party. But each party is increasingly diverse, and geared toward various demographics. Republicans now win over a sizable number of Hispanics while Democrats win over a majority of college-educated whites. The visions of a united non-white coalition turning against white America isn’t happening–not yet, at least. What’s happening is a different form of tribalism.

That’s not to say demographic change doesn’t matter. Far from it. It’s disturbing to see small towns in America turn into Little Managuas and Little Port-au-Princes. It’s deeply concern ingthat Indians are gaining power in this country and want to bring in an infinite supply of their kinsmen. No one enjoys going to the nearby Costco and feeling like a stranger in your own land–but that’s now a common experience.

The political problems with mass immigration may not be manifesting, but the cultural and social problems are readily apparent. We may not need to worry about Hispanics turning red states blue, but we should worry about immigrants making our communities look like their home country rather than America. What’s the point of living in a Red State if your new hometown looks like Guatemala?