Regime Change Means More Migrants for the West

New AmCon Column

I have a new American Conservative column on the dangers regime change in Iran poses to the West. As recent history shows, it’s likely to spur a new migrant wave to Europe:

But it’s not clear how the West will benefit. The Islamic Republic is no friend to the U.S. and has committed many outrages against America and our allies. But it’s often better to stick with the devil you know rather than the one you don’t. Those pushing for regime change seem to think the mullahs will be replaced by America-loving liberal democrats who will thank Israel for bombing their land. All the Islamists will magically disappear and Tehran will finally welcome a Chappell Roan concert.

Not a single regime change has turned out this way. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya are far from model democracies. They all experienced violent civil wars that killed tens of thousands and created unstable governments. There’s a high likelihood the same would happen in Iran. Like these other countries, it’s not homogeneous and holds the seeds for ethnic conflict. Persians are only a bare majority of the population. Kurds and Azeris may fight for independence rather than stay in a decapitated Iran. That would further destabilize the region, as it would obviously cause conflict with neighboring states. The Islamists will still be around and fighting for their cause. It’s unclear what serious alternative to the mullahs exists, especially one that could keep the country together. A power vacuum is far more likely to lead to violence than to a harmonious resolution in favor of liberal democracy. Just look at what happened to post-Saddam Iraq.

Read the rest here.