The battle over the House Speakership exposed the current divides in the Republican Party. But, in contrast to what some observers believe, they’re mostly the same fault lines that existed in the pre-Trump GOP.

Many commented on Donald Trump’s lack of influence in this fight. Fewer commented on what the House rebels actually believe. Liberals still called them MAGA Republicans, even though their ideology isn’t exactly Trumpism. Many of them share Trump’s bluster and they do care about immigration and other Trumpian issues. But their primary concerns aren’t populist–they’re Tea Party.

Prognosticators of the GOP’s future should bear this in mind. While the conservative commentariat expresses different ideas from that of the pre-Trump conservative movement, this change isn’t reflected among Republican lawmakers or their institutions. Some things have changed rhetorically for the GOP. Few Republicans openly endorse mass amnesty and more Republicans support restricting legal immigration than ever before. But populist views on economics and government spending have found no toehold in the party.

The demands made by the Republicans opposed to Kevin McCarthy were textbook Tea Party. A lot of it was insider baseball concerning House rules and committee assignments. The concrete political issues were throwbacks to the Obama era. McCarthy agreed to have votes on blocking debt ceiling raises, securing the border, cutting entitlements, term limits, and defunding the IRS. The only addition to core Tea Party concerns was the demand for a Church-style committee on the intelligence community’s misdeeds. Though that demand is driven by the persecution of Trump and his supporters, the idea would’ve resonated with the more libertarian members of the Tea Party.

Some of these issues, like border security, are shared with populism. But fixation on the debt ceiling, spending caps, and entitlement reforms are certainly not. McCarthy agreed to hold votes to balance the budget, which would obviously require spending cuts. Republicans don’t want these cuts to come from the defense budget–they want them aimed at Social Security and Medicare. Texas Rep. Chip Roy, one of the leaders in the battle over the speaker’s chair, says they won’t cut the benefits from these programs. Republicans will likely propose a raise to the eligibility age for these programs while altering the benefits for future recipients.

Any cuts to entitlement programs are extremely unpopular. A 2019 Pew Research poll found that 74 percent of Americans want no cuts to social security. Only six percent favored cuts. Republicans did poorly in the 2018 elections partially because voters thought the party would threaten their entitlements. This factor also played a role in Mitt Romney’s loss in 2012.

Yet, Republicans who believe the party is doomed unless it cuts ties to Trump believe the GOP must champion entitlement reforms. For instance, Paul Ryan re-emerged on the national political stage after the 2022 midterms to urge the party to dump Trump and embrace entitlement cuts. The anti-McCarthy rebels are still pro-Trump, but they agree with Ryan on fiscal matters. They want limited government with fewer benefits, not the populist vision of a BASED big government that doles out more benefits.

Pretty much every respectable populist wants the Republican Party to ditch Trump, despite the fact there are no populist heirs to the Donald. The preferred alternative, Ron DeSantis, stays clear of populist economics. His popularity is due to culture war fights, not promises to institute universal healthcare. As a congressman, DeSantis supported entitlement cuts.

A few senators occasionally posture in a populist manner, Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio chief among them. Besides standing with well-paid rail workers threatening to strike, Hawley and Rubio aren’t changing the party’s approach to economics. Even populist Republicans will revert to Tea Party mode. Blake Masters entertained privatizing social security on the campaign trail.

Trump won the 2016 primary because he was the only moderate voice on these matters. He stood strongly against entitlement cuts and felt the government should occasionally intervene in the economy to serve its citizens. He touted trade protectionism against the free trade fanaticism of his Republican rivals. Trump didn’t espouse the social democracy beloved by populist intellectuals. He was just a moderate on these issues. Coupling that moderate sensibility with identitarian appeals proved to be a winner.

Without Trump, the GOP will likely return to form. Conservative commentators can still pretend the Right is undergoing a “realignment,” but the Republican Party will remain committed to conservative economic orthodoxy. We won’t see the insurgent wing of the party adopt populist economics–they will just be more devoted to cutting the budget.

The GOP’s right-wing faction remains attached to Tea Partyism for a couple of reasons. One, the institutions that supported the Tea Party ten years ago are still around and just as powerful. Club for Growth played a significant role in the Speaker battle and many of the primary battles of 2022. Americans for Prosperity is still an important grassroots network for the party. Most of the think tanks and media outlets that were big before Trump are still prominent in 2023–and their views haven’t changed much. There were no new populist grassroots organizations, donor networks, or media outlets to challenge the old orthodoxy. There were a few intellectual journals and think tanks, but these pale in comparison to the existing institutions. American Affairs plays no role in GOP policy; Club for Growth does.

Republicans also remain committed to Tea Partyism because that’s what their donors desire. As previously mentioned, there is no conservative donor network pushing for more spending on expanding entitlement programs. The donors want government reduced and these programs cut.

As do a lot of Republican voters. There’s a misconception among populists that the GOP base is working class. It’s still largely middle class. 2016 election data shows that about two-thirds of Trump voters were middle class. While he did boast incredible support among non-college educated whites, most of that demographic that voted for Trump made over $50,000 a year. The real hardcore Trump supporters were also majority middle class. Only 22 percent of those arrested over the January 6 protests worked blue collar jobs. Twenty-six percent were business owners and 28 percent were white collar workers.

Middle class whites, particularly small business owners, prefer low taxes and fewer regulations. They’re not interested in the aggressive nanny state touted by populist writers. Tea Party ideas still appeal to them.

This reality isn’t necessarily bad. Shrinking the federal bureaucracy and lowering taxes are still good ideas. The problems arise when this becomes the central focus at the expense of identity issues. It can also leads to political disaster. The GOP will get destroyed if they promote entitlement cuts. Republicans will do nothing to stem the degradation of our country if they ignore identity issues. Low taxes won’t stop America from turning into a shithole.

A Tea Party return will be fine as long as they avoid Paul Ryan’s fantasies and oppose mass immigration and minority identity politics.

The Speaker battle shows the Right’s populist moment is over. The GOP is not going to transform into the American Labor Party.

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