The Iran War Was A Mistake

No matter how the conflict ends, it will not have served America well

When President Trump first struck Iran over a month ago, I took a “wait and see” approach. I wasn’t supportive of the foreign intervention, as it seemed unwise and reckless. But there was a possibility the blowback could be minimal. Trump had previously killed Qasem Soleimani and bombed Iran with hardly any consequences. History could repeat itself once again with the Khamenei assassination.

It’s clear now that this war was a grievous mistake. We did not achieve regime change, nor did we even get a more amenable leader to deal with Iran. The Islamic Republic isn’t going to give up its missiles or nuclear program. While Iran has lost many of its leaders and military installations, it’s still able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and strike critical infrastructure throughout the Middle East. With these advantages, the Islamic Republic has upended the global economy and world oil supply. It’s more likely America and its allies will make serious concessions to open the strait than it is for Iran to meet Trump’s initial demands.

Even if the war ended tomorrow and the strait opened up, it would still stand as a costly and unnecessary attack. What did we accomplish here?

The Iranian navy may be sunk, but that doesn’t hinder Iran’s ability to block global oil shipments. America and Israel may have significantly depleted Iran’s military capabilities, but they can still fire missiles that wreck Gulf oilfields. The ayatollah may be dead, but hardliners still rule in Tehran.

It’s hard to see what was gained here in exchange for straining our relations with the rest of the world, damaging the world economy, creating political blowback, and potentially jeopardizing our footprint in the Middle East.

The admin has failed to make a compelling case for the war. Trump and Marco Rubio have even admitted Israel dragged us into it, further undermining the case for the strikes. The president’s public statements about the conflict have been some of his worst comments in his political career. His primetime speech last week offered little of substance besides a 2-3 week timetable to end the conflict and dubious threats to send Iran back to the Stone Age. His Sunday post promising to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure, along with an F-bomb and a bizarre “praise be to Allah,” persuaded no one of the conflict’s necessity.

The only case is “trust us.” This is the first American war where there hasn’t even been an attempt to justify it.

But the results of it aren’t going to look good for the admin. The best case scenario is we, or Europe, makes concessions to Iran to get them to open up the strait. The worst case scenario is that Iran establishes a permanent toll through the critical passage and many of our allies turn on us as a result.

The war has already made a joke out of NATO, with our European allies refusing to allow us to use their airspace or bases for the mission. Only Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia support the strikes. Europe has been loud and clear that it opposes them.

Some Trumpists would argue it’s good that the Europeans show their true colors, but it’s not a smart thing to alienate our most reliable allies over a poorly thought-out military action. Even if NATO needs to be reassessed, pushing Europe further away is not in America’s interest–especially when we’re left with suspect Middle Eastern allies.

Many American nationalists don’t care for our “global” reputation as it’s often dictated by how libtarded we are. According to much of the world, Barack Obama was our best modern president. They also seemed to like senile Joe Biden, in spite of his many faux pas. It can seem that the only way to get world approval is to have a liberal in the White House. Still, it’s important to maintain America’s reputation for diplomacy. Trump’s effort, which seemed to dupe Iran with phony negotiations, is not going to help us build better relations. Other nations will be more suspicious of our word and potentially look to other powers to settle disputes and provide security guarantees. As was the case with Trump’s reckless threat to throw away the EU trade deal to get Greenland, it’s very stupid to be incapable of sticking to promises. If the world perceives discussions with America as possible traps, they’re not going to engage in them in the first place.

The war has damaged the Right throughout the West. Despite the Trump administration’s unprecedented outreach to European nationalists, these parties are rushing to condemn the president and the war in Iran. It makes political sense. The conflict skyrocketed gas priceshigh and hit the continent’s economy hard. There’s virtually no support for the war in Europe. Electoral considerations forced nationalists to distance themselves from Trump to save their chances. We will see if the disavowals were enough to persuade voters to still support these parties.

In America, the war has further diminished the GOP’s chances in the upcoming midterms. It always looked to be an uphill battle to retain the House, but polls show the GOP may even lose the Senate in November. The war is unpopular here. An imminent conclusion to the conflict that brings down gas prices could be enough to wipe out its electoral side effects. Democrats aren’t exactly campaigning against the war, either. But even a positive conclusion to the war (whatever that may look like) won’t do any positive favors for Trump besides mitigating the negatives created by the conflict.

The conflict has largely alienated the Online Right from MAGA. The Online Right doesn’t quite have the power to sway elections, but this faction does punch above its weight in influencing the Trump admin. The White House’s meme strategy is shaped by the onlinesphere, and many policies the administration implemented were derived from anons. There were already sharp divisions within the Online Right over Trump before the conflict. They’ve gotten far worse since the war broke out. It’s no longer popular to be pro-Trump on the internet. One will get more engagement calling for Trump to be removed from office than praising the president. Many influencers have followed those incentives.

The conflict has also convinced popular influencers such as Tucker Carlson to move into an anti-Trump direction, which could narrow the MAGA coalition. The administration seems to not care about these losses. Trump, at times, seems to indicate MAGA is now just Fox News, Mark Levin, Laura Loomer, and Catturd. There’s no need for anyone else. That obviously makes for a weaker political movement.

Some of the dire claims about the Iran war are greatly exaggerated. The American Empire is not going to collapse, regardless of how the conflict ends. The dollar will still reign supreme, as will our economy. No other power will step into our role as the protector of the seas. This will not be a worse debacle than Iraq or Vietnam. America survived both of those conflicts and it will survive this one. The Empire is strong enough that it can make mistakes and not pay a heavy price for them.

But survival isn’t the same as victory. Just because we can get away with errors doesn’t mean we should shrug our shoulders and move on. We should learn lessons from it. We have to realize the limits of what we can do in the Middle East and stop giving Israel carte blanche to do as it pleases.

Mistakes can be useful if one learns and improves. It’s Trump’s job now to take these tough lessons to heart and get his administration back on track. The Iran war stands as his biggest failure so far. He can still ensure that it stands only as a black mark on an otherwise impressive administration.

You can now preorder Scott Greer’s new book, “Whitepill: The Online Right and the Making of Trump’s America,” from this link.