The Real Fix To The Fertility Problem

Eastern Europe shows the limits of pro-natalist government policies

American conservatives fell in love with Poland and Hungary. The two countries stand as models for what all right-wing governments should be. Not only do they keep migrants out, they also promote pro-family policies designed to boost birth rates. Many of their fans want America to adopt these same policies to fix our fertility woes.

But the two countries are not quite the paragon of fecundity some may believe. Hungary did boost its fertility from the lowest in Europe after implementing pro-natalist policies, but its total fertility rate (TFR) still remains low. Poland’s TFR continues to rapidly decline in spite of the government’s support for larger families. Poland is on pace to drop below a TFR of 1 in the very near future.

These aren’t quite the success stories they were cracked up to be. The disappointments from Eastern Europe should encourage us to see this issue in a different light. Government policy can’t engineer a baby boom. A better strategy for the West is to build a society that doesn’t require as many people to circumvent the dangers of low fertility and mass immigration.

Both Hungary and Poland offered financial rewards for citizens to have kids. Hungary spends roughly five percent of its GDP on natalist policies. These include tax breaks, generous loans, and aid in buying a home. A Hungarian woman with four or more kids receives a lifetime exemption from taxes. Families with three or more kids can obtain five figure loans. New families receive state assistance when purchasing a home.. 

These policies may have helped boost fertility. Hungary went from a dismal 1.2 TFR to nearly 1.6 in 2021. However, TFR dropped to 1.53 last year. The Magyars can still claim a positive effect on their fertility.

The Poles can’t. Poland’s recently defeated conservative government offered large subsidies for mothers. Under their program, a mother would receive €120 per month for every child after their firstborn. There was a slight bump at first but birthrates continued to decline soon after. Its TFR dropped to 1.33 in 2021. The Eastern European country recorded the lowest number of births since World War II last year.

There are unique factors that may account for the dismal fertility rates of Poland and Hungary. Many of their young people flock to Western Europe to work, leaving fewer people to give birth in the homelands. But, that aside, these fertility trends align with that of the developed world.

East Asia is even in a worse state than Eastern Europe. Many of those countries are already below 1 TFR. They are also desperate to reverse this demographic catastrophe. 

Here’s what Taiwan is doing to reverse its sub-1 TFR:

Taiwan has spent more than $3 billion trying to get its citizens to have more children.

In 2009, after decades of falling birth rates, it began offering six months of paid parental leave, reimbursed at 60 percent of a new parent’s salary — then recently increased that share to 80 percent. The government has introduced a cash benefit and a tax break for parents of young children, and has invested in child care centers.

Perhaps having exhausted more conventional approaches, current and would-be lawmakers have started getting creative: Authorities have hosted several singles mixers in an effort to get young people to pair up. Terry Gou, a candidate in next year’s Taiwanese presidential election, has even proposed giving people a free pet if they have a child. “If there is no birthrate in the future, who will take care of our furry friends?” he said. “So I have put these two issues together.”

None of this has worked. The singles mixers, in particular, have failed. Not a single marriage came out of the large events. Its TFR continues to decline despite the billions it spends to encourage more childbirths.

Does this mean we should just accept we’re not going to reproduce ourselves and give up on pro-natalist policies? Not quite. Our governments should still encourage people to have children. Conservatives just need to understand the limits of what it can do. Some believe lucrative tax breaks and generous maternity leaves will boost the TFR above replacement level. There is yet to be an example to prove this. Europe generally has more guaranteed family benefits than America, and it still can’t push fertility in the right direction.

This is a major problem because immigration is offered as the solution to demographic woes. Can’t have enough kids? Just import more third worlders! This argument relies on the assumption that western societies must continue their current population levels or exceed them. Immigration boosters claim we need more foreigners to prop up social security and other entitlements despite many of these immigrants contributing little in taxes. They’re also needed to do the jobs “westerners won’t do.” 

The Great Replacement is the gravest threat to the West. Allowing millions of non-westerners into our countries is not a solution to our demographic woes. It creates an even worse problem. 

The real solution is to build societies that don’t need as many people as we do today. The two things that can help us down this path is increasing automation and enacting entitlement reforms, both of which upsets the populist right. A lot of self-proclaimed populists see automation as a threat to American jobs. But migrant laborers work most of the jobs that would be eliminated. Imagine if robots were picking fruit and taking your order at fast food joints. These aren’t the jobs Americans aspire to perform. There would still be a need for skilled human labor that Americans can provide. We would just have less of a need to import menial laborers from the third world. Greater automation could ensure we don’t need as many people as before. Automation has helped Japan maintain strict immigration policies in the wake of demographic decline. The same can be done for us. 

But the problem with robots is that they don’t pay into social security. That leads us to the need for entitlement reform. This is a politically unpopular idea, but there’s a necessity for it to curb the demand for immigration. Open borders advocates say we need immigrants to fund social security. But social security reform offers a way to offset this concern. Raising the retirement age and a few other changes can go a long way in making it less necessary to import foreigners. These will be politically costly, but it’s a price to pay to keep America American. Making people wait until they’re 67 or 68 to collect social security is a small cost to preserve our civilization.

There are things we can do to keep our TFR from falling below 1. But these measures must be tied to helping our productive citizens have kids. Tax subsidies should be tied to two-parent households and not act as another giveaway to welfare queens. We want a system that rewards our best and brightest for building families. 

But we just need to understand these efforts are not going to lead to above-replacement TFR. This is a predicament we can solve, however. We just need to accept an America with less population growth. We can still have a great America and a West to be proud of. It just calls for a few changes to deal with this new paradigm.