I shudder to think how much of a role the fact of the Dems having two incredibly bad candidates running in the general election played in Trump's victory. I doubt if there have been two worse major party nominees in US history.
Bad candidates and a horrible administration led to the Trump landslide this election. But Americans are moving towards Trump's direction on the identity issues
A bit too soon to be making sweeping reappraisals in my view. This is, after all, a sample size of 1 with an historically bad D opponent vs one of the most charismatic men alive. And, of course, the only groups Trump actually won were white men, white women, and latino males (many of whom are largely white racially).
So long as our laws tolerate and indeed reward ethnocentrism in every group but whites, there will be a powerful incentive for every group to behave ethnocentrically, which can only be to the detriment of a civic nationalist party like the GOP. If this administration takes up the challenge of dismantling that system and retains popular support, I will revise my opinion. We’ll see.
Republicans without Trump won roughly 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2022. It's going to be a divided demographic even without Trump. Same with Asians. Black men are another story.
I have a hard time making any judgements on how people voted based on exit polls. Why are these treated as gospel fact when pre-election polling can be ridiculed for the guesswork that it is? Did whites really vote for Trump less in 24 than 16? 10+ million incremental votes were all from non-white? Was the Sailer Strategy a fraud?
Overall I agree with most of your points, but demographics are still destiny. Trump's issues have won out this time, but if whites continue to decline and no one can effectively carry his mantle and unique messaging in the future it is worrisome.
Are you including Indians as Asian? It feels like only the beginning of that group coming into its own, God help us.
Trump has unlocked a hidden demographic that racial polls don't capture - Americans. People who see their primary political identity as American support him and his movement overwhelmingly, people who see their primary political identity as something else - Black, women, Venezuelan, whatever, are against him.
This is just one election so the triumphalism about demographics NOT being destiny is a little premature. It's still destiny in areas where blacks and browns hold demographic majorities. Just talk to white people who are unfortunate enough to live in those places.
For whatever reason a significant number of Hispanics, Asians, and a small but increasing number of blacks like Trump and are willing to vote for him. But this phenomenon is unique to Trump and there's no guarantee that when Trump leaves office this trend will continue especially if the Democrats run a candidate that is less insane and more articulate, likable and accomplished than Cackling Kamala.
The non-whites who voted for Trump in this election are "Trump Republicans" meaning they only vote Republican if Trump is on the ticket similar to the "Reagan Democrats" in the 1980's. In the 1988 presidential election George H.W. Bush received 6 million fewer votes and lost 6-7 more states than Reagan did in his 1984 landslide win because Reagan was not on the ticket and the same thing could await Republicans in 2028. The same can be said of a lot of whites who won't bother to vote unless Trump is on the ticket.
I think this election is also a rebuke to those who mock "worse is better". Blacks and Hispanics were feeling the effects of high inflation and the burden of illegal immigration unlike at any time which I think forced them to cross party lines in higher percentages then we've seen in a long time. In my experience those two racial groups have largely retained their common sense and still vote for their perceived group interests unlike highly educated whites who are rigid left wing ideologues, suicidally altruistic towards non-whites, self hating or a combination of the three. IOW, the "good" white person or as Derbyshire says "goodwhites".
But I do think the white population in America might be permanently divided with little hope of a racial ingathering thanks to the endless gaslighting by left wing media and brainwashing in the school system and universities which pathologize white racial interests while lionizing non-white interests.
Democrats will still win future elections. So will Republicans. The article primarily stresses that liberal and WN predictions that demographics will forever doom the GOP, non-whites will form a solid rainbow coalition against whites, and white solidarity will emerge as a result aren't coming true in the foreseeable future.
Isn’t this more about Hispanics assimilating and Asians depolarizing? Also couldn’t white advocacy be done in a way that was anti-antiwhite? Like explicitly calling out antiwhite behavior.
I just meant having a white group that called out all other groups benefits to be cancelled instead of asking for their own (race caucuses, history months, etc.)
I shudder to think how much of a role the fact of the Dems having two incredibly bad candidates running in the general election played in Trump's victory. I doubt if there have been two worse major party nominees in US history.
Bad candidates and a horrible administration led to the Trump landslide this election. But Americans are moving towards Trump's direction on the identity issues
A bit too soon to be making sweeping reappraisals in my view. This is, after all, a sample size of 1 with an historically bad D opponent vs one of the most charismatic men alive. And, of course, the only groups Trump actually won were white men, white women, and latino males (many of whom are largely white racially).
So long as our laws tolerate and indeed reward ethnocentrism in every group but whites, there will be a powerful incentive for every group to behave ethnocentrically, which can only be to the detriment of a civic nationalist party like the GOP. If this administration takes up the challenge of dismantling that system and retains popular support, I will revise my opinion. We’ll see.
Republicans without Trump won roughly 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2022. It's going to be a divided demographic even without Trump. Same with Asians. Black men are another story.
I have a hard time making any judgements on how people voted based on exit polls. Why are these treated as gospel fact when pre-election polling can be ridiculed for the guesswork that it is? Did whites really vote for Trump less in 24 than 16? 10+ million incremental votes were all from non-white? Was the Sailer Strategy a fraud?
Overall I agree with most of your points, but demographics are still destiny. Trump's issues have won out this time, but if whites continue to decline and no one can effectively carry his mantle and unique messaging in the future it is worrisome.
Are you including Indians as Asian? It feels like only the beginning of that group coming into its own, God help us.
Trump has unlocked a hidden demographic that racial polls don't capture - Americans. People who see their primary political identity as American support him and his movement overwhelmingly, people who see their primary political identity as something else - Black, women, Venezuelan, whatever, are against him.
This is just one election so the triumphalism about demographics NOT being destiny is a little premature. It's still destiny in areas where blacks and browns hold demographic majorities. Just talk to white people who are unfortunate enough to live in those places.
For whatever reason a significant number of Hispanics, Asians, and a small but increasing number of blacks like Trump and are willing to vote for him. But this phenomenon is unique to Trump and there's no guarantee that when Trump leaves office this trend will continue especially if the Democrats run a candidate that is less insane and more articulate, likable and accomplished than Cackling Kamala.
The non-whites who voted for Trump in this election are "Trump Republicans" meaning they only vote Republican if Trump is on the ticket similar to the "Reagan Democrats" in the 1980's. In the 1988 presidential election George H.W. Bush received 6 million fewer votes and lost 6-7 more states than Reagan did in his 1984 landslide win because Reagan was not on the ticket and the same thing could await Republicans in 2028. The same can be said of a lot of whites who won't bother to vote unless Trump is on the ticket.
I think this election is also a rebuke to those who mock "worse is better". Blacks and Hispanics were feeling the effects of high inflation and the burden of illegal immigration unlike at any time which I think forced them to cross party lines in higher percentages then we've seen in a long time. In my experience those two racial groups have largely retained their common sense and still vote for their perceived group interests unlike highly educated whites who are rigid left wing ideologues, suicidally altruistic towards non-whites, self hating or a combination of the three. IOW, the "good" white person or as Derbyshire says "goodwhites".
But I do think the white population in America might be permanently divided with little hope of a racial ingathering thanks to the endless gaslighting by left wing media and brainwashing in the school system and universities which pathologize white racial interests while lionizing non-white interests.
Democrats will still win future elections. So will Republicans. The article primarily stresses that liberal and WN predictions that demographics will forever doom the GOP, non-whites will form a solid rainbow coalition against whites, and white solidarity will emerge as a result aren't coming true in the foreseeable future.
Isn’t this more about Hispanics assimilating and Asians depolarizing? Also couldn’t white advocacy be done in a way that was anti-antiwhite? Like explicitly calling out antiwhite behavior.
All of this is covered in the article
I just meant having a white group that called out all other groups benefits to be cancelled instead of asking for their own (race caucuses, history months, etc.)