Whenever I find myself thinking that a "happening" is going to take place, I think back to when I was checking the midterm election results while at work in 2022. My coworker asked what the maps I was looking at displayed, and I explained the how Dems did decently well, etc.
His response? "How's Trump doing? I hope he wins again"
For as much as us in the online political sphere like to spout off comparing 21st century America to Weimar, civil war Spain, and so forth, the typical American's political engagement extends very little beyond experiencing mild amusement/disgust whenever they see Orange Man pop up in an Instagram feed full of beauty products, NFL highlights, and AI slop.
This is an excellent article. For once, a guy who in his heart is hard-core against the left recognizes the difficulties of simply putting them all on a barge and sinking them in the Bering Strait, which I would like to do. No, we need to dismantle their sleazy conspiracy legally, one day at a time. The American people will not lift a finger to stop Trump from taking out the garbage, as the saying goes. The leftists will howl and scream. A few lunatics will start shooting people. It will all come to nothing. The "Progressive (Marxist)" spell is broken and it ain't coming back.
After decades of being in the drivers seat, I think it’s safe to say the liberal progressive moment is over and we’re undergoing a realignment. But in a generation or so the pendulum may swing back the other direction.
IMO you are dangerously confusing “short term peaked” - where I wholeheartedly concur with you - with “over”.
Now there is a good chance that it is actually a medium term peak. I hope you are correct, but this is not a given.
But the other, arguably bigger, question is whether the decline from the peak is steep or just gradual. This too remains to be seen. Within academia, e.g., I am very confident that the decline will be only slight. In other places, it is harder to say.
P.S. the “moment” in question was not a “liberal progressive” one; it was a decidedly *illiberal*, hard leftist one.
It's really just about food in the fridge. That becomes difficult and expect the revolution of the normies, and who knows what direction they'll go - right or left.
China has avoided rebellion because it's government knows prosperity is key, and with full stomachs and creature comforts, no problems. Only hyper-political people like us want to raise the bloody flag over Iryna Zarutska.
I will add that white people are generally passive. (Need proof? See the UK or Germany.) As we import more...let's say..."emotive" peoples, then our chances of an explosive revolution over a political murder go way up.
Scott, I agree with your main point that "nothing ever happens" due to the great stability/passivity of American society.
I disagree with your suggestion that leftist violence is always disorganized or due to individual crazy people (for instance, in your article, where you say, "We just have anonymous Discord chats and a hazy idea of what Antifa is. There’s not a clearly identifiable target demographic for mass arrests.")
Anarchists in Portland and Seattle are organized as groups to conduct intimidation and violence. This has been true in the Pacific Northwest for some time (at least since the 1999 WTO riots in Seattle). Andy Ngo has documented ANTIFA activities in Portland. Seattle has less well documented but similarly coordinated activities. See, for instance Seattle's CHAZ/CHOP event in 2020 that involved at least (1) the Mayor of Seattle Jenny Durkin, (2) the Police Chief Carmen Best, and (3) an enormous laundry list of ANTIFA types:
While the connections between all these people haven't been laid out in detail through prosecutions or a "Days of Rage" type book, certainly the mass (illegal) deletion of communications from all Seattle city officials following this event suggests conspiracy and coordination (i.e., ceding control of part of the city to protesters, evacuation of SPD East Precinct). And if these coordinated activities between protestors, rioters and government officials are happening in Seattle, probably they are happening other places too. There can't be a downside in trying to prosecute and expose this, right?
Antifa are still organized to do those kinds of riots, but they aren't the ones planning the random lethal violence that is most bothering the country. Antifa still has a large presence in the PNW and the admin plans to go after them. But we will still have the assassinations and mass shootings
Whenever I find myself thinking that a "happening" is going to take place, I think back to when I was checking the midterm election results while at work in 2022. My coworker asked what the maps I was looking at displayed, and I explained the how Dems did decently well, etc.
His response? "How's Trump doing? I hope he wins again"
For as much as us in the online political sphere like to spout off comparing 21st century America to Weimar, civil war Spain, and so forth, the typical American's political engagement extends very little beyond experiencing mild amusement/disgust whenever they see Orange Man pop up in an Instagram feed full of beauty products, NFL highlights, and AI slop.
Last election cycle I was asked what a primary was and what a senator was by different people that worked in very well paying finance jobs
This is an excellent article. For once, a guy who in his heart is hard-core against the left recognizes the difficulties of simply putting them all on a barge and sinking them in the Bering Strait, which I would like to do. No, we need to dismantle their sleazy conspiracy legally, one day at a time. The American people will not lift a finger to stop Trump from taking out the garbage, as the saying goes. The leftists will howl and scream. A few lunatics will start shooting people. It will all come to nothing. The "Progressive (Marxist)" spell is broken and it ain't coming back.
I agree with all except your assertion that “it ain’t coming back”.
You are likely correct about the short term, but even that ain’t guaranteed.
And sadly, you are almost surely wrong about the longer term…
After decades of being in the drivers seat, I think it’s safe to say the liberal progressive moment is over and we’re undergoing a realignment. But in a generation or so the pendulum may swing back the other direction.
IMO you are dangerously confusing “short term peaked” - where I wholeheartedly concur with you - with “over”.
Now there is a good chance that it is actually a medium term peak. I hope you are correct, but this is not a given.
But the other, arguably bigger, question is whether the decline from the peak is steep or just gradual. This too remains to be seen. Within academia, e.g., I am very confident that the decline will be only slight. In other places, it is harder to say.
P.S. the “moment” in question was not a “liberal progressive” one; it was a decidedly *illiberal*, hard leftist one.
It's really just about food in the fridge. That becomes difficult and expect the revolution of the normies, and who knows what direction they'll go - right or left.
China has avoided rebellion because it's government knows prosperity is key, and with full stomachs and creature comforts, no problems. Only hyper-political people like us want to raise the bloody flag over Iryna Zarutska.
I will add that white people are generally passive. (Need proof? See the UK or Germany.) As we import more...let's say..."emotive" peoples, then our chances of an explosive revolution over a political murder go way up.
Yeah. He's also has domestication syndrome, is low vril and cowardly. That as well.
Scott, I agree with your main point that "nothing ever happens" due to the great stability/passivity of American society.
I disagree with your suggestion that leftist violence is always disorganized or due to individual crazy people (for instance, in your article, where you say, "We just have anonymous Discord chats and a hazy idea of what Antifa is. There’s not a clearly identifiable target demographic for mass arrests.")
Anarchists in Portland and Seattle are organized as groups to conduct intimidation and violence. This has been true in the Pacific Northwest for some time (at least since the 1999 WTO riots in Seattle). Andy Ngo has documented ANTIFA activities in Portland. Seattle has less well documented but similarly coordinated activities. See, for instance Seattle's CHAZ/CHOP event in 2020 that involved at least (1) the Mayor of Seattle Jenny Durkin, (2) the Police Chief Carmen Best, and (3) an enormous laundry list of ANTIFA types:
https://antifawatch.net/SearchQuery/1?firstName=&lastName=&country=US&tags=CHAZ+CHOP
While the connections between all these people haven't been laid out in detail through prosecutions or a "Days of Rage" type book, certainly the mass (illegal) deletion of communications from all Seattle city officials following this event suggests conspiracy and coordination (i.e., ceding control of part of the city to protesters, evacuation of SPD East Precinct). And if these coordinated activities between protestors, rioters and government officials are happening in Seattle, probably they are happening other places too. There can't be a downside in trying to prosecute and expose this, right?
Antifa are still organized to do those kinds of riots, but they aren't the ones planning the random lethal violence that is most bothering the country. Antifa still has a large presence in the PNW and the admin plans to go after them. But we will still have the assassinations and mass shootings
If we ever do get a “civil war” it would likely resemble the Troubles in Northern Ireland.
“… the rigged election, and January 6 were all used to further accelerate the Left’s control over the control and suppress the Right.”
You got a sentence fragment you need to clean up.
In order to understand the public, one must gain an understanding of "slop." I never endorse it. I leave it ambiguous because there are some pluses to "bread and circuses." Mass culture isn't my preference https://www.highly-respected.com/p/the-plus-side-of-bread-and-circuses